Lens v Sporting prediction and odds
Lens v Sporting in the Champions League: we make Sporting 39.1% and saw 2.70 at Coolbet, a 2.1 point gap. Our chances, team news and the risks.
On this page
We make Sporting the slight favourites in Lens: Sporting 39.1%, Lens 33.9%, the draw 27.0%. The best price we saw on Sporting was 2.70 at Coolbet against our fair price of 2.56, a 2.1 point gap. The quote is from 3 October, so it is old. It is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is Tuesday 13 October at 16:45 UTC at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, matchday two of the league phase.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Lens | 33.9% | 2.95 | ||
| Draw | 27.0% | 3.70 | ||
| Sporting CP | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.70, Coolbet | +2.1 pts |
At 2.70 the market implied 37.0% for Sporting. That is a narrow gap, and on a week-old quote it may already be gone. Lens are fresh in our record: we backed Lyon against them on Friday and Lens won 2–1, which we wrote up in Lens v Lyon prediction: our chances for Friday.
What the public evidence says
- Lens lose a forward. Lineups Today reports Abdallah Sima out with a muscle injury, with Jhoanner Chávez and Maik Nawrocki also missing.
- Two Lens players are not registered. The same source lists Jean-Clair Todibo and Thorgan Hazard as unavailable for this competition.
- Sporting are close to full strength. Ibrahima Ba is back in training but not expected to start, per Lineups Today.
What could make us wrong
Lens beat Lyon on Friday and play at home, and our last call against them missed. The draw at 27.0% is a real risk. If the market has moved toward Sporting since 3 October, the gap is gone.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you Sporting will win; on our numbers they do not win about 61% of the time. It does not give today's price, and it does not show the research behind the card.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 make favourites for Lens v Sporting?
Sporting. We give them 39.1%, Lens 33.9% and the draw 27.0%.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on Sporting?
2.70 at Coolbet, quoted at 23:48 UTC on 3 October. Our fair price is 2.56, a 2.1 point gap on a quote that is now a week old.
Who is missing for Lens?
Abdallah Sima is out with a muscle injury, per Lineups Today, alongside Jhoanner Chávez and Maik Nawrocki.