Bayern Munich v Arsenal preview: the team news
Bayern host Arsenal tonight without Olise, Musiala and possibly Kompany; Arsenal miss Saliba and Hincapié. The team news and what it means for the price.
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Bayern Munich host Arsenal tonight with three things against them that Arsenal do not have: Michael Olise is suspended, Jamal Musiala is still injured, and Vincent Kompany has been ill enough to miss Bayern's last training session and press conference. Arsenal are missing William Saliba, Piero Hincapié and Christos Tzolis but get Martin Zubimendi back. We have a call on this match, but it sits on the Desk for members, so this preview has no BAI8 probability or price in it. What it has is the team news and what each piece of it should do to a price.
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC (21:00 in Munich) on Wednesday 21 October at the Allianz Arena, matchday 3 of the Champions League league phase.
Bayern's team news
| Player | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | Suspended (red card at Viking) | The Standard |
| Jamal Musiala | Out, thigh | The Standard, Football London |
| Joshua Kimmich | Expected to play after missing training for private reasons | Football London |
| Manuel Neuer | Likely back in goal after a foot problem | Football London |
| Vincent Kompany (coach) | Viral infection, may not be on the touchline | The Standard |
Lennart Karl is the likely replacement for Olise on the right, per The Standard. Bayern come in from a 6–1 win over RB Leipzig on Saturday, but dropped two points in a 3–3 draw at Viking on matchday 2. That Viking game was one of our calls; we had Bayern at 60.1% at 1.12, a negative-edge call, and it lost.
Arsenal's team news
| Player | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| William Saliba | Out, back | Sports Mole |
| Piero Hincapié | Out, ankle | Sports Mole, Football London |
| Christos Tzolis | Out, hamstring | Sports Mole |
| Martin Zubimendi | Back and involved | BBC Sport |
Arsenal have won both Champions League games, 1–0 against Napoli and 3–0 against Lille, and won 1–0 at Nottingham Forest on Sunday, per Sports Mole. Our call on Arsenal v Lille was Arsenal at 59.8%, and it won. Football London notes Arsenal have not won away at Bayern since March 2013.
What the news should do to a price
Olise is the biggest single absence. He is one of Bayern's main creators from the right, and a suspension known days in advance is usually priced in by now. If a price on Bayern still looks long, that is not the reason.
Kompany's illness matters less than it sounds. The plan and the players do not change if the coach watches from a hotel room. Markets tend to react to news like this more than the match does.
Saliba's absence is the one that hurts Arsenal. He is their best defender against a forward line built around Harry Kane, and Arsenal have been without him for weeks, so the market has had time to price it. How we think about absences in general is in how to bet on football with a model.
Where our numbers are
Our call for this match is published and timestamped, like every Desk call, and it will appear on the public record with its result tonight. Every Champions League call we have settled so far is collected in our Champions League calls so far, settled. Tonight's open card with public numbers is Real Betis v Feyenoord.
What this does not tell you
This piece gives no chance for either side, because we will not quote a number here that you cannot check. It does not cover late team news: the official line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off, after this was written. And a match between two sides this strong can turn on one moment that no preview sees.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
When is Bayern Munich v Arsenal?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC (21:00 in Munich), at the Allianz Arena, matchday 3 of the Champions League league phase.
Who is missing for Bayern Munich v Arsenal?
Bayern are without the suspended Michael Olise and the injured Jamal Musiala, and Vincent Kompany may miss the game through illness. Arsenal are without William Saliba, Piero Hincapié and Christos Tzolis.
What is BAI8's prediction for Bayern Munich v Arsenal?
We have published a call on this match, but it is on the Desk for members, so this preview carries no BAI8 probability or price. The call goes on the public record once the match settles.
Is Martin Zubimendi playing for Arsenal against Bayern?
Mikel Arteta said Zubimendi is back with the squad and will be involved, per BBC Sport.