Lugano without Steffen and Moncada in doubt
Lugano go to St Gallen without Renato Steffen and maybe Dereck Moncada. What the absences do to the price, and why we still make them 49.6%.
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Lugano travel to St Gallen on Sunday without Renato Steffen (muscle) and with Dereck Moncada and Hannes Delcroix doubtful. That is a large part of why the unbeaten league leaders were 2.67 at Pinnacle this morning. Our number did not flinch: we still give Lugano 49.6% to win, which against that price is a 12.1 point positive edge. Here is why the absences matter less than the price suggests, and where they could still hurt us.
Who is missing and why it matters
Dereck Moncada has five league goals, level with Daniel Dos Santos as Lugano's top scorer, per Tipsterio. He took a knock to the leg against Basel on 1 November. If he misses, Lugano lose their most direct runner.
Renato Steffen is out with a muscle injury, per Tipsterio, so Lugano lose another attacking option on top of the Moncada doubt.
Hannes Delcroix went off against Basel and sat out Thursday's 3–0 over Kauno Žalgiris. His absence would mean a reshuffle on the left of defence.
Add the schedule: Sunday is Lugano's third game in eight days. Tipsterio reports Mattia Croci-Torti saying before the trip that the priority was "recovering our strength".
Why the price moved more than our number
Our card was published at 22:49 UTC on 7 November and already had the Basel injuries and Thursday's rotation in it. What it weighed more heavily is the season so far. Lugano have 34 points from 12 games, 36 goals scored and 10 conceded, per BBC Sport. The goals are spread: Dos Santos and Moncada five each, Yanis Cimignani four. A side with that spread loses less when one forward misses than a side that leans on one scorer.
They also managed Thursday. Grgic and Kevin Behrens came on after 70 minutes, and Dos Santos played a half, per Tipsterio. The players who carry the league form were rested for this game.
That is the reasoning behind the gap:
| Our view | Price seen | |
|---|---|---|
| Lugano to win | 49.6% (fair 2.02) | 2.67 at Pinnacle, implies 37.5% |
| Edge | +12.1 pts |
Some prices before the card even made St Gallen slight favourites, per Tipsterio. That is the market putting most of its weight on fatigue and the injury list. We think it has overdone it. For what "edge" means here, and what it does not, read what a positive edge actually means.
Where the absences could still hurt us
St Gallen's coach Enrico Maassen told the St Galler Tagblatt that Lugano are scoring above their expected goals. If that finishing cools on the day it cools without Moncada, our edge is thinner than it looks. St Gallen have their own long injury list, seven names, which is part of why we are not worried about their attack. But a home side that has won three of four is not a soft draw.
The full preview, with form, head to head and how the match is likely to go, is St Gallen vs Lugano prediction, odds and team news.
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What this does not tell you
We do not know the line-ups at the time of writing. If Moncada starts, this piece overstates the problem; if Grgic or Behrens are also rested, it understates it. Our chance does not move with team news after the card is published.
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Common questions
Is Dereck Moncada playing for Lugano at St Gallen?
He is doubtful after a leg knock against Basel, per Tipsterio. He is Lugano's joint top league scorer with five goals.
Is Renato Steffen injured?
Yes. Steffen is out with a muscle injury and misses the trip to St Gallen.
Do the absences change BAI8's number?
No. Our chance was set when the card was published at 22:49 UTC on 7 November: Lugano 49.6%. The card already weighed the injury reports available then. We do not move it afterwards.
Why is Lugano's price so long?
Fatigue and absences. Lugano played a Conference League game on Thursday, this is their third game in eight days, and two attackers plus a defender are out or doubtful. The best price we saw was 2.67.