Analysis
What happened in a match, what the numbers say about it, and what it changes.
6 articles
Analysis
6Cycling1 minCycling: a three week race priced dailyA grand tour outright is repriced every afternoon by a result that may be irrelevant, and the stages that matter are not the ones that get the coverage.Golf2 minGolf outrights and a very large fieldA 156 player field means the favourite is priced around 8.00 and almost everybody loses almost every week. That changes what a good bet even looks like.Darts1 minThe darts market is thinner than it looksAverages are quoted everywhere and predict less than people assume, because a leg is won by finishing and finishing is a different skill from scoring.Boxing1 minWhy a boxing favourite is priced so shortPrices of 1.05 look absurd until you count how often the heavy favourite wins. The market is usually right, so where is it not?Football2 minWhat a red card does to a live priceA sending off is worth far more in the eightieth minute than in the tenth, and the market's instant reaction is often the wrong size in a predictable direction.Tennis1 minWhat a tennis price says about a surfaceClay rewards different players than hard courts do, and the market knows it. Here is how surface shows up inside a match price, and where it is priced late.