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Analysis

What happened in a match, what the numbers say about it, and what it changes.

8 articles

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Sport
American football2 min readWhat missing Nick Bosa does to a 49ers priceNick Bosa is set to miss Seahawks v 49ers with knee and calf injuries. What the reports say, how a pass rusher moves a price, and where our number sits.
What an international break does to the oddsLeagues restart this weekend after three weeks off. What the international break really changes in a price: injuries on duty, late returns and stale odds.2 min readCycling: a three week race priced dailyGrand tour standings use cumulative time, while bunch finishes often give a group the same time. Route and team support shape the outright.2 min readGolf outrights and a very large fieldA field can contain 156 players, and even an elite golfer usually loses. Field size, margin and four-round variance change how an outright should be judged.2 min readDarts averages miss the checkoutThe three dart average is informative but incomplete, because winning a leg also depends on checkout opportunities and finishing performance.1 min readWhy a boxing favourite is priced so shortVery short boxing prices can reflect matchmaking structure, but a small implied risk is still risk and judging matters if a bout goes the distance.2 min readWhat a red card does to a live priceA sending-off changes both teams' scoring rates, and its effect varies with timing. Live prices need more than one fixed red-card adjustment.2 min readWhat a tennis price says about a surfaceCourt pace changes serve, return and movement inputs. Here is how surface belongs in a tennis model, and where uncertainty is easiest to understate.1 min read