Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction, odds and team news

We lean Estonia away at Luxembourg, by a small margin. Our numbers give Estonia 36.0%, Luxembourg 33.3% and the draw 30.7%. The best price we saw for Estonia was 3.95 at Bally Bet, against our fair 2.78: a 10.7 point positive edge. Estonia have drawn three of their four group games and Luxembourg have lost their last three. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Kick-off is 19:45 UTC (20:45 in Luxembourg) on Friday 13 November at the Stade de Luxembourg, matchday 5 of League C Group 4. More Nations League predictions.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Luxembourg	33.3%	3.00
Draw	30.7%	3.26
Estonia	36.0%	2.78	3.95, Bally Bet	+10.7 pts

The Desk published this card at 00:53 UTC on 8 November and quoted the 3.95 at 04:01 UTC on 9 November. Fair price is 1 / 0.360, about 2.78. A price of 3.95 implies 25.3%, so the edge is 36.0% minus 25.3%, about 10.7 points. The quote is four days old at kick-off; see how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.

Form: second against bottom, with the same result a month ago

Estonia are second in the group on 6 points from four games (one win, three draws, no defeats), behind Iceland on 8, per FOX Sports. They have scored only two goals in those four games, so this is a side that wins by one or not at all. They beat Luxembourg 1–0 in Tallinn on 3 October, per PitchLab, and drew 0–0 with Iceland and Bulgaria.

Luxembourg are bottom on 3 points. After a 2–1 win in Bulgaria on 26 September they lost 0–3 to Iceland, 0–1 in Estonia and 0–2 to Bulgaria at home, per PitchLab. They have scored two goals in four games and conceded seven.

Team news

Luxembourg: Jeff Strasser's squad has no Christopher Martins (still in rehabilitation, not expected until March), Leandro Barreiro, Danel Sinani or Seid Korac, per Chronicle.lu.

Estonia: Rauno Sappinen, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, Märten Kuusk, Markus Soomets and Robi Saarma are out for medical reasons, per Baltic Football News. Both squads are 25 strong; line-ups come on the day.

How the match is likely to go

Two low-scoring sides. Estonia sit deep and take the point; Luxembourg lack their usual creators. A narrow result is the most likely shape, and our draw chance of 30.7% is above the usual league rate. For the draw as a price, see what the draw is worth in football odds.

What could make us wrong

International sides are hard to model: squads change every window, and sample sizes are tiny. If Estonia's missing forwards matter more than we think, or if Luxembourg play with the freedom of a team with nothing left to lose, 36.0% is too high. A 36% chance loses nearly two times in three.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only, at a price quoted four days early. It does not know the starting line-ups or any news after 9 November. Our chance does not move with the price once the card is published.