Northern Ireland vs Ukraine prediction, odds and team news

How it settled

Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine, full time on Saturday 14 November. The lean on Northern Ireland at home was right, though at 47.9% it was always close to a coin flip.

Our call before the match

Written on 9 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

We lean Northern Ireland at home to Ukraine. Our numbers give Northern Ireland 47.9%, the draw 31.0% and Ukraine 21.1%. The best price we saw for Northern Ireland was 2.40 at Hard Rock Bet, against our fair 2.09: a 6.2 point positive edge. It is the thinnest edge on the public Desk this week. Northern Ireland lead the group and beat Ukraine 3–0 in Slovakia five weeks ago. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Kick-off is 19:45 UTC on Saturday 14 November at Windsor Park, Belfast, matchday 5 of League B Group 2. More Nations League predictions.

Update, 10 November: Arsenal forward Ceadach O'Neill has withdrawn injured, per the Irish FA. Our chance is unchanged at 47.9%, and the best price was still 2.40 at Hard Rock Bet at 03:35 UTC, so the edge is still 6.2 points. What his absence does is in Ceadach O'Neill is out: what it does to Northern Ireland.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Northern Ireland	47.9%	2.09	2.40, Hard Rock Bet	+6.2 pts
Draw	31.0%	3.23
Ukraine	21.1%	4.73

The Desk published this card at 03:00 UTC on 8 November and quoted the 2.40 at 04:02 UTC on 9 November. Fair price is 1 / 0.479, about 2.09. A price of 2.40 implies 41.7%, so the edge is 47.9% minus 41.7%, about 6.2 points. The quote is five days old by kick-off; see how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.

Form: the group leaders have not conceded

Northern Ireland top Group B2 on 8 points from four games, per the Irish FA, with four clean sheets: 1–0 at Georgia, 0–0 with Hungary, 3–0 at Ukraine and 0–0 with Georgia. Hungary are second on 7 and Ukraine have 4.

Ukraine won 1–0 against Hungary and drew 0–0 with Georgia in September, then lost 0–3 to Northern Ireland, per Sports Mole and the Irish FA. They meet Northern Ireland for the second time in six weeks.

That match is the core of our 47.9%: the side that won 3–0 away is now at home, in a sold-out Windsor Park, per the Irish FA. But two goalless draws in four games show how few goals this team scores.

Team news

Northern Ireland (per the Irish FA):

• Daniel Ballard, Eoin Toal and Jamie McDonnell are injured, and Alistair McCann is still out.
• Eoin Kenny (Portsmouth) and goalkeeper Dermot Mee (Manchester United) have first call-ups.
• Bailey Peacock-Farrell and Dion Charles dropped to the standby list.
• Ceadach O'Neill (Arsenal) withdrew injured on 9 November and misses both games. Conor Bradley remains a long-term absentee, per BBC Sport.

Ukraine: we could not find a current absence list. Treat that as unknown, not as a clean bill of health.

How the match is likely to go

A tight game. Northern Ireland are hard to break down and rarely score more than once, and Ukraine failed to score against them in October. Our draw chance of 31.0% is above the usual home-team rate.

What could make us wrong

Ukraine's squad may be much stronger than in October, and the first meeting was away in Slovakia, not in Belfast. A 6.2 point edge is small and can vanish with a small estimation error. A 47.9% chance fails to win more often than not.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only, at a price quoted five days early. It does not know the starting line-ups, Ukraine's team news or any news after 10 November. Our chance does not move with the price once the card is published.