Pau vs Nantes prediction, odds and team news
We make Pau 48.5% at home to Nantes in Ligue 2, fair price 2.06, and saw 3.10 at Betfair: a 16.2 point edge. Form, absences and risks.
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How it settled
Pau 0–2 Nantes. Our call was Pau to win at 48.5%, fair price 2.06, best price 3.20 at Betfair on the settled record (3.10 when this preview was written). The call lost. The Desk settled it at 00:12 UTC on 8 November as a positive-edge miss (+17.2 pts).
Killian Corredor scored a penalty and Louis Leroux added a second, and Pau finished with nine after red cards for Anthony Briançon and Fodé Doucouré, per FC Nantes. We leaned on Pau's five-win run; Nantes' depth without Sow and Hachem was better than we gave it credit for.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Our call before the match
Written on 7 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.
We back Pau at home against Nantes. Our numbers give Pau 48.5%, the draw 26.6% and Nantes 25.0%. The best price we saw for Pau was 3.10 at Betfair, against our fair 2.06, a 16.2 point positive edge. Pau arrive on five straight wins; Nantes have not won in four. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC (20:00 local) on Saturday 7 November at the Nouste Camp, Ligue 2 matchday 12. More Ligue 2 predictions.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau | 48.5% | 2.06 | 3.10, Betfair | +16.2 pts |
| Draw | 26.6% | 3.77 | ||
| Nantes | 25.0% | 4.00 |
The Desk published this card at 09:32 UTC on 6 November. The 3.10 was quoted at 04:45 UTC on 7 November. Fair price is 1 / 0.4845, about 2.06. A price of 3.10 implies 32.3%, so the edge is 48.5% minus 32.3%, about 16.2 points.
Form: five wins versus no wins
Pau sit fifth with about 20 points and five consecutive wins, including one over Metz, per Sport.fr and Ouest-France. Thierry Debès has a side that scores through Benet, Rajot, Fall and Benali.
Nantes sit 15th with about 9 points, one point above the drop zone, and have taken two draws and two defeats from their last four, per Ouest-France. Grégory Poirier has talked about changing system and personnel after a flat 1–1 with Clermont.
That gap in momentum is why a near-50% home chance looks fair to us even though Nantes carry the bigger club name.
Team news
Pau:
- Pouilly may miss with a hamstring issue.
- Babacar Leye could start on the bench, per Sport.fr.
Nantes:
- Saïdou Sow is out with a meniscus lesion.
- Ryad Hachem is out with an adductor/thigh problem.
- Tati and Mirbach are also out with knee issues.
- Dehmaine Tabibou returns after illness, per Ouest-France.
We look at those Nantes absences on their own in Nantes without Sow and Hachem at Pau.
What could make us wrong
Nantes can change shape and still have enough quality to spoil a home run. A 48.5% chance loses often. Cup-style intensity at a small ground cuts both ways. Live card: Pau FC vs Nantes.
What this does not tell you
It covers the match result only. It does not price goals or handicaps. Our chance does not move for later XI news after the card is published.
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Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour in Pau vs Nantes?
Pau at home. We give them 48.5%, the draw 26.6% and Nantes 25.0%.
Is Pau a value bet against Nantes?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw: 3.10 at Betfair at 04:45 UTC on 7 November against our fair 2.06, a 16.2 point edge. Pau still fail about half the time on our own chance.
When is Pau vs Nantes?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 19:00 UTC (20:00 local) at the Nouste Camp, Ligue 2 matchday 12.
Who is missing for Pau and Nantes?
Nantes miss Saïdou Sow (meniscus), Ryad Hachem (adductor) and Tati (knee). Pau may miss Pouilly; Leye could start on the bench, per Ouest-France and Sport.fr.