Almería vs Andorra prediction: who BAI8 backs and why

BAI8 backs Almería to beat Andorra on Saturday, and gives them a 56.5% chance. That makes the leaders of La Liga 2 the likeliest winners by a clear margin: the draw gets 23.1% and Andorra 20.3%. The catch is the price. At the best odds we found, Almería are slightly too short to bet on, and the verdict says so.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Almería vs Andorra page to see the call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the numbers, the reasoning and the team news.

The match: when, where and what is at stake

Almería host Andorra on Saturday 14 November 2026 at UD Almería Stadium, matchday 14 of LaLiga Hypermotion (the second tier, also called La Liga 2). LaLiga's match page lists the game as 17:30, Spanish media give 18:30 peninsular time, and the two agree once you allow for the UTC offset: 18:30 in Spain is 17:30 UTC. LaLiga TV Hypermotion shows it, per Teleceuta.

The table is lopsided. Teleceuta has Almería first with 29 points from 13 games (24 scored, 10 conceded) and Andorra 19th with 11 points from 12 games (17 scored, 22 conceded). That gap is the first thing any price reflects. If you want the mechanics behind a number like 56.5%, our guide to betting on football with a model covers how a chance becomes a fair price.

Our prediction

Chances and fair prices are BAI8's, assessed on 9 November 2026. Best prices are the highest we found across the bookmakers we track, with the time each was quoted. The bookmaker figure is a market snapshot, not a live price.

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best bookmaker price	Where and when quoted
Almería	56.5%	1.77	1.72	Coolbet, 9 Nov 2026, 01:11 UTC
Draw	23.1%	4.32	4.23	1xBet, 9 Nov 2026, 01:10 UTC
Andorra CF	20.3%	4.92	4.60	Unibet, 9 Nov 2026, 01:10 UTC

Our verdict is "Likely outcome, unattractive price". In plain words: Almería are more likely to win than not, but the best price on them pays slightly less than the match deserves. Odds of 1.72 imply a 58.1% chance, which is the break-even point. We give them 56.5%, so the gap is 1.6 percentage points against the bettor. The same is true, by smaller margins, of the draw (4.23 implies 23.6% against our 23.1%) and Andorra (4.60 implies 21.7% against our 20.3%). No side of the 1X2 market beats its price in our numbers.

A worked example makes it concrete. A 10 euro stake at 1.72 returns 17.20 if Almería win. At our 56.5% chance, the average return is 0.565 x 17.20 = 9.72, so 10 euros staked would be expected to come back as about 9.72 over many such matches. At our fair price of 1.77 it would come back as 10.00. The difference is small, and that is the point: this is a fair-looking price on a likely result, not an opportunity.

The market agrees with us on the shape. The one bookmaker consensus we hold puts Almería at 56.0%, the draw at 23.3% and Andorra at 20.8%, close to our own figures. Confidence in the call is moderate. When the model and the market land this close, there is rarely much to say about price, and we would rather say so than invent an edge. Our guide to fair price against best price explains how to read that table.

Why we back Almería

Form at home and in the table. Almería lead the division on 29 points. Their last three league games read: a 2–2 draw at home to Real Oviedo on 24 October (Arribas and Miguel put Almería 2–0 up, Oviedo pulled one back in the 87th minute and an own goal from Jorge Pulido made it 2–2 in the 90th), a 1–1 at Eibar on 31 October (Quim Junyent scored in the 18th minute, Pejiño equalised in the 87th) and a 1–0 win at Girona on 8 November, Miguel de la Fuente scoring in the 67th minute. They have dropped points late twice, which is a real flaw, but Almería were the team in front both times.

Andorra's results are the opposite. Andorra lost 2–0 at Girona on 18 October (Bryan Gil with a direct free kick, Vladyslav Vanat), then lost 2–3 at home to Burgos on 26 October after conceding three in 28 minutes. The club's own report says Andorra created more chances than Burgos but were punished for defensive errors. Their last league game, at Tenerife on 2 November, was stopped at 2–2 with Lautaro de León and Jesús Owono both sent off, per LaLiga's match page.

The previous meeting. Almería beat Andorra 3–2 in February, per Andorra's own report. Arribas, Miguel de la Fuente and Leo Baptistao scored for Almería, and Andorra's Lautaro missed a penalty at 2–2 that Andrés saved. We hold no other head-to-head facts we can source, and one game is a thin base.

Rest. Andorra's Sunday 8 November fixture at home to Mallorca was postponed. El Periòdic reports that Andorra asked for the suspension after the death of Tenerife player Jesús de Miguel, and that Andorra held a voluntary training session that began with a minute of silence. Andorra therefore arrive without a league game since 2 November. That is time to recover, but it is a hard week to prepare in, and no table can price it.

Team news

Almería's own club site and La Voz de Almería name the absences:

• Stefan Dzodic and Brian Cipenga are away with Serbia and DR Congo. Pimienta said they cannot play against Andorra.
• Marcos Luna is suspended after his fifth yellow card of the season, at Girona.
• Rodrigo Ely and Nico Melamed are listed as out. Melamed is still injured but improving, per the coach on 6 November.
• Chirino is doubtful. He has been on light field work apart from the squad.

Almería will need others to step in. We do not state a line-up, because none has been confirmed in the sources we read. We found no equivalent Andorra team news beyond the Tenerife discipline matters: El Periòdic reports Owono did not train on the first day back and that others were absent too, so who is available is unclear.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	BAI8 chance
1–1	10.9%
2–1	9.9%
2–0	9.3%
1–0	9.2%
3–1	6.3%

Notice that the likeliest single score is a draw, even though Almería are the likeliest winner. That is how football works: one result spreads across many scorelines, while a draw is concentrated on a few. Add up every Almería win and you reach 56.5%, which is more than any one score can show.

On goals, we give 80.3% for over 1.5, 57.3% for over 2.5 and 34.8% for over 3.5. We hold no bookmaker price for those lines, so we say nothing about their value.

What could make this wrong

• The range is wide. Almería's 56.5% sits inside a range of 36.8% to 73.5%. The conservative end of that range would make them a coin flip, and it is why the edge is "not robust" in the verdict.
• Prices are four days old. All bookmaker figures date from 9 November. Team news since then, such as Luna's suspension and the internationals, may have moved the market.
• Almería leak late goals. Two of their last three games were drawn after a lead or a late concession. A 1–1 is the likeliest single score.
• Andorra's situation. A postponed match and a difficult week can make a side play better or worse than its table. Neither direction is in our number.
• Small samples. Twelve or thirteen league games is a short record for either side.

For more on how the draw is priced in matches like this, see what the draw is worth in football odds.

If you want to see the full research behind the call, open the Almería vs Andorra page. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you the result: a 56.5% chance still loses nearly half the time. The prices were quoted on 9 November, so check any current price against our fair price of 1.77 before you rely on it. The kick-off differs between sources by an hour's offset only, and we could not verify the final team sheets, which are published about an hour before the game. We cite club and media reports for availability, and some, like Ely's absence, come with no stated reason. BAI8 does not place bets and holds no bookmaker account.