Pelicans v Pacers prediction and odds
We make New Orleans 59.1% at home to Indiana on opening night, fair price 1.69, and saw 2.44 at 1xBet: an 18.1 point edge. Our chances and the risks.
We make the New Orleans Pelicans favourites at home to the Indiana Pacers on opening night: Pelicans 59.1%, Pacers 40.9%. The best price we saw on New Orleans was 2.44 at 1xBet, against our fair price of 1.69. That is an 18.1 point positive edge. The number is an estimate, not a promise, and a gap this size on a season opener deserves extra caution.
Tip-off is listed for 8 pm ET on Wednesday 21 October in New Orleans (00:10 UTC on the 22nd on our card). It is both teams' first regular-season game.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 59.1% | 1.69 | 2.44, 1xBet | +18.1 pts |
| Indiana Pacers | 40.9% | 2.44 |
The 2.44 was quoted at 05:02 UTC on 18 October. At 2.44 the market gives New Orleans about 41%, which means the market has Indiana as the favourite and we have it the other way round. Basketball has no draw, so the two chances add up to 100%; the difference from a football card is in two-way basketball odds vs three-way football.
What moved the number
- Indiana's rotation is thin on opening night. Hoops Nightly lists Johnny Furphy out for the season with a torn ACL, and Aaron Nesmith (hamstring), Jarace Walker and T.J. McConnell day-to-day after all three sat out the preseason finale.
- New Orleans finished preseason healthy. SportsLine's notes have Zion Williamson playing 22 minutes and Jeremiah Fears, Trey Murphy III and Saddiq Bey all active in the 107–106 win over Washington.
- Home court counts for more when little else is known. With no regular-season games yet, home court is one of the few inputs that is not a guess.
What could make us wrong
Tyrese Haliburton is back. The Pacers' own report says he averaged 16 points and five assists in 18 minutes across three preseason games, his first action since the Achilles injury in the 2025 Finals. If he is close to his old level, Indiana are better than a team missing him for a year, and ESPN's matchup predictor makes the Pacers 63% favourites. That is a long way from our 40.9%. We look at what his return does to the price in what Haliburton's return does to the Pacers.
What this does not tell you
It does not say New Orleans will win; on our numbers they lose about four times in ten. It is moneyline only: no spread, no total, no props. Opening night has no regular-season data, and the final injury report lands the day before the game. The 2.44 is a timestamp, not a price you are promised.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for Pelicans v Pacers?
The New Orleans Pelicans. We give them 59.1% and the Indiana Pacers 40.9%.
Are the Pelicans good value against the Pacers?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw. Best quote 2.44 at 1xBet against our fair 1.69 is an 18.1 point edge. It is an estimate, not a promise.
When is Pelicans v Pacers?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, listed for 8 pm ET in New Orleans (the Desk has tip-off at 00:10 UTC on 22 October). It is both teams' first regular-season game.
Is Tyrese Haliburton playing against the Pelicans?
He is expected to. The Pacers say he played three of four preseason games after his Achilles injury, and Hoops Nightly lists him cleared. Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker and T.J. McConnell were day-to-day.