Querétaro vs Monterrey prediction, odds and team news

We lean Querétaro at home to Monterrey. Our numbers give Querétaro 39.6%, Monterrey 32.7% and the draw 27.7%. The best price we saw for Querétaro was 3.40 at betPARX, against our fair 2.53: a 10.2 point positive edge. The reason is the Monterrey team sheet: five players are missing for a game that falls in the middle of an international break. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Kick-off is 23:00 UTC (17:00 in Mexico City) on Saturday 14 November at the Estadio Corregidora. It is Monterrey's postponed Apertura matchday 7 game, moved because of their Leagues Cup run, per the club. More Liga MX predictions.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Querétaro	39.6%	2.53	3.40, betPARX	+10.2 pts
Draw	27.7%	3.61
Monterrey	32.7%	3.06

The Desk published this card at 03:32 UTC on 8 November and quoted the 3.40 at 02:10 UTC on 9 November. Fair price is 1 / 0.396, about 2.53. A price of 3.40 implies 29.4%, so the edge is 39.6% minus 29.4%, about 10.2 points. The quote is five days old by kick-off; see how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.

Form: Monterrey in a hole, Querétaro in a worse one

Monterrey lost 4–0 at Toluca on Saturday, which left their Liguilla hopes thin, per TV Azteca. This game is their one spare chance to catch up, so Matías Almeyda will want three points. Before the break they sat ninth on 21 points after 14 games, with 26 goals scored, per NNC.MX.

Querétaro were 11th on 20 points at the same stage and had lost four of their five games to 30 October, the last three by 1–3, 1–3 and 1–2, per NNC.MX. They scored 18 and conceded 21 in 14. Monterrey won the last meeting 4–0.

Those numbers favour Monterrey on paper. The squad news is why we do not.

Team news

Monterrey (per TV Azteca and ABC Noticias):

• Hugo Cuypers (called up by Belgium; six goals in 13 league games) and Jesús Corona (Mexico) are on international duty.
• Iker Fimbres is with Mexico's under-23s.
• Óliver Torres is suspended after a fifth yellow card.
• Carlos Salcedo is suspended after a red card at Toluca.

Querétaro (per OptimaGoal):

• Erik Dueñas and Jean Unjanque are doubtful.
• Santiago Homenchenko is out until mid-December.

How the match is likely to go

Monterrey must adapt a defence and midfield they have not had in training, in a fixture that is also the first game after a 0–4. Querétaro should have the ball more than usual. Our draw chance of 27.7% is close to the Liga MX norm.

What could make us wrong

Almeyda still has other forwards, and an angry reaction to a 4–0 can be strong. A home side that has lost four in five is not in good shape either. A 39.6% chance loses more often than it wins.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only, at a price quoted five days early. It does not know the starting line-ups, or any news after 9 November. Our chance does not move with the price once the card is published.