Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao prediction
Rayo v Athletic on Saturday: we make it almost a three-way split, and Rayo at 3.15 was the widest gap on our Desk at 5.8 points. Here is why.
On this page
We make Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao nearly a three-way split: Rayo 37.5%, the draw 29.1%, Athletic 33.4%. Rayo is our selection because the market disagreed. The best price we saw on a Rayo win was 3.15 at Betfair, against our fair price of 2.67. That is a 5.8 point gap, the widest on our Desk today. It is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is Saturday 10 October at 12:00 UTC (14:00 in Madrid), matchday eight, at the Estadio de Vallecas.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 37.5% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 29.1% | 3.44 |
| Athletic Club | 33.4% | 2.99 |
The 3.15 on Rayo was quoted at Betfair at 23:32 UTC on 4 October. It implies a 31.7% chance. We have 37.5%. Our assessment was published at 01:24 UTC on 6 October. As of 9 October the quote is about five days old and the Desk numbers are unchanged overnight, so treat the 5.8 point gap as a snapshot from early in the week, not a live price. How to read a BAI8 price that is days old walks through checking it against today's odds.
What the public evidence says
These are the public facts that bear on it. The research passes behind the number are on the full card.
- The table is level. LaLiga's match centre has both sides on eight points: Rayo 12th after seven games (two wins, two draws, three defeats, 11 scored, 16 conceded), Athletic 10th after six (7 scored, 6 conceded). Athletic have a game in hand.
- Rayo lean on one man. Sergio Camello has seven of Rayo's 11 league goals, per LaLiga.
- Athletic are missing their most dangerous winger. FotMob lists Nico Williams out with a thigh injury and Unai Egiluz out long term with a cruciate injury. Transfermarkt adds Peio Canales and Dani Vivian.
- Rayo have holes too. Augusto Batalla is out with a broken leg, and FotMob has Luiz Felipe, Adrià Pedrosa, Iván Balliu and Randy Nteka doubtful.
The history is one-sided: Transfermarkt's league head-to-head reads 26 Athletic wins, 11 draws and 9 Rayo wins. We do not weight a record that spans decades of different squads very heavily, and the market seems to.
What could make us wrong
A draw is the most likely way this goes against us; we rate it 29.1%. If Williams turns out fit, or Rayo's back line is thinner than we assumed, our Rayo number is too high. A three-week break also means nobody has seen either side play for a while, which we cover in what an international break does to the odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Rayo will win. On our numbers they fail to win more than six times in ten. It does not say 3.15 is still available. And a 5.8 point gap on one match tells you nothing about whether our gaps pay over a season; only a long record can show that.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What are BAI8's chances for Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao?
Rayo 37.5%, the draw 29.1% and Athletic 33.4%. Our fair prices are 2.67, 3.44 and 2.99.
Why is Rayo the selection if the chances are so close?
Because of the price. The best price we saw on Rayo was 3.15, which implies 31.7%. We have 37.5%, so the gap is 5.8 points, the widest on our Desk when we published on 8 October.
Is Nico Williams playing for Athletic against Rayo?
Public team news says no. FotMob and the Spanish line-up sites list him out with a thigh injury, expected back around mid-October.