What an international break does to the odds
Leagues restart this weekend after three weeks off. What the international break really changes in a price: injuries on duty, late returns and stale odds.
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An international break changes the information around a match more than the match itself. Three things move prices when the leagues come back: players hurt on international duty, players who return late or tired, and odds that were posted before any of that was known. The popular story, that a break "kills momentum", has much less behind it. This weekend, with La Liga and Ligue 1 back after three weeks, all three of the real effects are on show.
Injuries picked up on duty
A club can lose a player without him kicking a ball for them. Lyon are the example this week: Sports Mole reports Moussa Niakhaté hurt his hamstring with Senegal, and Lyon could also be without Nicolás Tagliafico for Friday's trip to Lens. That forces a new centre-back pairing for a side that went into the break unbeaten and second in the table.
What it does to a price depends on who replaces him, which is why our Lens v Lyon prediction flags it as the thing most likely to make our number wrong.
Late returns and tired legs
The second effect is quieter. Players come back on different days, from different distances, with different minutes in their legs.
- Málaga coach Juanfran Funes told Sport that Rafita is a doubt after playing a lot of minutes for Spain's under-21s.
- Diario de Sevilla reports Robbie Ure and Gabriel Suazo were the last Sevilla internationals to report back, due on Friday for a Monday game at Levante.
A player back on Friday for a Monday match probably plays. A player back on Thursday for a Friday match might not start. That is exactly the kind of detail a price set days earlier cannot know.
Prices posted before the news
This is the effect that matters most for anyone comparing odds. Many prices for the first weekend back were posted before the internationals had even finished. On our own Desk, the best prices on five of this weekend's cards were quoted on 4 October. Every injury or late return since then is news those prices did not contain.
That cuts both ways: a stale price can be generous or mean. The only way to know is to compare today's price with a fair price, the sum in how to read a BAI8 price that is days old. For the general case, see why betting odds move before kick-off.
What about momentum?
Lyon went into the break after a 4-0 win over Rennes; Lens went in on a four-game winless run. It is tempting to say the break helps Lens reset and costs Lyon their rhythm. We have not found solid public evidence that breaks change results in either direction, so we do not adjust for it. Who plays matters; the mood music does not.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you how much any single absence is worth; that depends on the player and his replacement. It does not prove breaks have no effect on form, only that we have not seen the evidence. And it covers this weekend's news only, which will be out of date by the next break.
Common questions
Does an international break affect football betting?
It affects the information more than the football. Players get injured on duty, some return late and tired, and prices posted before the break can be days out of date by kick-off.
Do teams lose form over an international break?
There is no solid public evidence that a break kills a team's form in general. Treat the momentum story as a story, and look at who is actually available.
Which club news this week came from international duty?
Lyon's Moussa Niakhaté picked up a hamstring injury with Senegal, Málaga's Rafita is a doubt after heavy minutes with Spain's under-21s, and Sevilla's Robbie Ure and Gabriel Suazo were the club's last internationals back.