Rochdale vs York City prediction and team news

How it settled

Rochdale 0–1 York City, full time on Saturday 14 November. York won as our likeliest result at 44.6%, by a single goal.

Our call before the match

Written on 13 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

BAI8 makes York City the likeliest winner at Rochdale on Saturday, at 44.6%, but we pass on the bet: the best price we found for them, 1.90, is shorter than our fair price of 2.24. Rochdale get 30.7% and the draw 24.7%. York are seventh in League Two and Rochdale twentieth, and the market agrees York are ahead. It just prices them too high for us.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Rochdale vs York City page to see the call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the numbers, the reasons and the team news.

Kick-off is Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 UK time, per Sky Sports' listing, at Rochdale's home ground. Sky names it Spotland; some other sites use its sponsored name, Crown Oil Arena. It is the same ground.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found
Rochdale	30.7%	3.26	3.70, Betr, 04:22 UTC 8 Nov
Draw	24.7%	4.05	4.05, Pinnacle, 04:23 UTC 8 Nov
York City	44.6%	2.24	1.90, Pinnacle, 04:23 UTC 8 Nov

Chances from BAI8's v4-ensemble assessment of 8 November 2026 (07:19 UTC). Prices were quoted that morning and will have moved since. Check a live price before you act on any of this.

The verdict is a pass, in plain words: neither a majority likelihood nor positive value. Three reasons, all from our file:

• York's 44.6% does not clear 50%, so this is not a likelier-than-not call.
• At 1.90 the bet needs York to win 52.6% of the time to break even. We give them 44.6%. That is an edge of -8.1 points against the bettor.
• Our range for York is wide, 20.6% to 68.3%, and it crosses the break-even line. Any apparent edge is not robust.

Confidence in the assessment is moderate (0.647), with source agreement of 0.98. That second number is high, which means our inputs agreed with each other. It does not mean the match is easy to call.

For someone thinking of betting: the call is that York are the most likely single result and that the 1.90 on offer does not pay for the risk. A price near our fair 2.24 would be a different conversation. If you want to understand why a favourite can be the likeliest result and still not worth backing, start with BAI8's guide to betting on football.

Why we back York City as the likeliest result

The table. Per BBC Sport's League Two table, York are seventh on 20 points from 14 games (five wins, five draws, four defeats, goals 24 for and 21 against). Rochdale are twentieth on 15 points from 14 (four wins, three draws, seven defeats, goals 17 for and 26 against). Rochdale's goal difference is -9 and York's is +3. The five-point gap and the twelve-goal swing in goal difference are the starting point for our lean.

What the market thinks against what we think. Across 22 bookmakers the market consensus is York 49.6%, draw 24.0% and Rochdale 26.4%. We give York 44.6%, Rochdale 30.7% and the draw 24.7%. So our assessment is less sure of York and more open to Rochdale than the market is. That gap is the reason for the pass. The market sees a clearer York win than our assessment does, and the gap shows up in the price: at 1.90 you are paying for a 52.6% York win, more than even the market consensus implies.

York's recent form is mixed. York beat Port Vale 2-0 at home on 24 October, which Sky Sports said made it 25 home league games without defeat. They drew 1-1 with Accrington on 20 October, Ollie Pearce heading a late equaliser, and then lost 5-2 at Grimsby on 31 October after leading 2-1 in the first half. They are good at home and less settled away, and this game is away. Those results are why our assessment does not push York further up.

Rochdale come in with a cup win. Rochdale won 2-1 after extra time at Fleetwood in the FA Cup first round, with Baba Adeeko's free-kick in the second half of extra time the winner, per Fleetwood Town's report. They played 120 minutes a week before this game, and the win ends a run of heavy league defeats only in the sense that it is a result: it tells us little about league form. Our range for Rochdale is wide (14.2% to 57%).

Goals against. Rochdale have conceded 26 league goals in 14 games, per the BBC table. York have scored more than they have conceded (24 to 21).

Team news

What the sources we could read say, and what they do not:

• York City: Morgan Williams is expected to miss around ten weeks, per The York Brief on 6 November. York also played Northampton in the FA Cup on Saturday 7 November, per Sky Sports. We have not confirmed anything about selection after that.
• Rochdale: they played 120 minutes at Fleetwood on 7 November (Fleetwood Town's report). We found no confirmed injury list for 14 November on a page we could read.
• Line-ups: none are confirmed. Both clubs usually publish them an hour before kick-off. Treat any "expected XI" you see before then as a guess.

If a key player is ruled out, the chances above would move. BAI8's number is a snapshot from 8 November, not a live reading.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	11.3%
1–2	9.2%
2–1	7.4%
0–1	7.3%
0–2	6.7%

No single score is likely: the best one is a draw at 11.3%. Note that three of the five likeliest scores are York wins, and the likeliest score is still a draw. That is normal. A 44.6% win chance is spread across many scorelines.

On goals, BAI8 gives over 1.5 a 81.7% chance, over 2.5 a 59.3% chance and over 3.5 a 36.9% chance. Both sides have been involved in goals lately: Rochdale have 17 for and 26 against in 14 league games, York 24 for and 21 against.

What could make this wrong

• A wide range. Our York chance is 44.6%, but the 20.6% to 68.3% interval says the data cannot separate a coin flip from a strong favourite. Rochdale's runs from 14.2% to 57%.
• Team news. Selection after the FA Cup games is unconfirmed on both sides, and a late change to either XI moves the numbers.
• Old information. Our assessment is dated 8 November and the prices are from that morning. Odds move between assessment and kick-off.
• Noisy form. York lost 5-2 at Grimsby after leading 2-1, and drew with Accrington after conceding first, so recent scorelines are a mixed guide.
• One match is one match. An assessment that gives York 44.6% expects them to fail to win more often than they win.

BAI8 has researched this match end to end: open the Rochdale vs York City page for the full research and the verdict. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. If the arithmetic behind "break-even" is new to you, implied probability in one minute covers it, and what a positive edge actually means explains why a negative one is a pass.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not give you a line-up or a live price. The chances are from 8 November and the prices are from that morning. We could not read the clubs' own match previews, so the team news above is limited to what Sky Sports, The York Brief and Fleetwood Town's report say. The verdict covers only the York City result at 1.90. It says nothing about the draw, Rochdale or the goals markets. And a pass is not a prediction that York will not win: it says the price is wrong, not the team.