Trabzonspor v Freiburg prediction and odds

How it settled

Trabzonspor lost 0–1 at home to Freiburg, per BBC Sport. Lukas Kübler scored on 14 minutes. Our pick was Trabzonspor at 2.75 on Unibet, a 14.3 point edge on the Desk record, and it settles as lost. The home favourites fell to an early set-piece rebound; the striker-absence and home-edge thesis failed on the night.

Our call before the match

Written on 30 Oct 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

We back Trabzonspor at home to Freiburg in the Conference League next Thursday. We give them 50.7% to win, a fair price of 1.97, and the best price we saw, rechecked on 3 November, is 2.60 at Unibet. That is a 12.2 point positive edge. The market leans the other way, towards the Bundesliga side; we think home form and Freiburg's slide make Trabzonspor the more likely winner. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Kick-off is 17:45 UTC on Thursday 5 November (18:45 in Paris, 20:45 in Turkey) at Papara Park in Trabzon.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Trabzonspor	50.7%	1.97	2.60, Unibet	+12.2 pts
Draw	23.2%	4.30
SC Freiburg	26.1%	3.83

The Desk published this card at 00:09 UTC on 30 October. The 2.60 was quoted at 03:48 UTC on 3 November; on 30 October the best price was 2.63. Our chance has not changed, only the price. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance: 1 / 0.507 is about 1.97. The 2.60 implies 38.5%, so the edge is 50.7% minus 38.5%, or 12.2 points. The three chances add up to 100%.

What the research weighs

• Trabzonspor are perfect in this competition. Two wins from two, the latest 2–0 against Hearts, leave them fourth on six points, per UEFA.com. Stadiro has them on six straight wins in all competitions, scoring in each.
• Freiburg are 18th on three points after a 3–0 defeat at Monaco on matchday 2, per AS Monaco.
• The table matters to both. A Trabzonspor win takes them to nine points; a Freiburg win would pull them level, per Stadiro.

Weekend update: both sides won

Updated 3 November. Both teams played after this card was published, and both won.

• Trabzonspor 2–0 Gaziantep FK on 1 November, a fifth straight league win under Thomas Reis that takes them to 22 points, per Fanatik. Stefan Savic and Muçi scored. They have won all five league games at Papara Park this season, and Mohamed Salah has 10 goals in his last 11 games, eight of them at home.
• Paul Onuachu is back. He had missed three games after scoring at KuPS and started against Gaziantep, per Fanatik.
• But two forwards are hurt. Franculino Dju, six goals in his last six games, has a thigh injury and is expected to miss every game until the international break. Aral Şimşir has a calf injury and is a doubt for Thursday, per Fanatik.
• Freiburg won 2–1 at Augsburg on 31 October after going a goal down, with substitutes Igor Matanović and Cyriaque Irié scoring, per SC Freiburg. Julian Schuster made seven changes, as he did in the midweek cup tie. Right-back Lukas Kübler went off injured, and Philipp Treu, who missed Augsburg with an ankle problem, could return on Thursday, per Tribuna.

None of this is in our 50.7%: our chance does not move after the card is published, only the price beside it. Freiburg's comeback win is a small point against the call; Onuachu's return is a small point for it.

What could make us wrong

Trabzonspor's goals. With Dju out and Aral doubtful, a lot rests on Onuachu, who is only just back from injury. We covered the striker question before the weekend in Trabzonspor's striker problem. Freiburg also have more top-level quality than three points suggest, and they have scored in each of their last seven home matches, per Stadiro. This is an away game for them, but a 26.1% chance is far from nothing.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only. It does not know the line-ups, which come about an hour before kick-off, or whether Treu and Aral make it. For how we treat edges of this size, see what a positive edge actually means.

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