Thun vs Hearts prediction, odds and team news

How it settled

Thun beat Hearts 3–1, per BBC Sport. An own goal by McCart on 22 minutes and strikes from Brighton Labeau on 34 and Dursun on 56 put Thun clear, with Findlay replying on 82. Our pick was Hearts at 2.70 on Unibet, a 10.5 point edge on the Desk record, and it settles as lost. Injury-hit Hearts collapsed defensively; the away call was wrong on the night.

Our call before the match

Written on 3 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

We back Hearts to win in Thun on Thursday. We give them 47.6%, a fair price of 2.10, and the best price we saw was 2.70 at Unibet. That is a 10.5 point positive edge. The market has Hearts as favourites too, only by less. The number is an estimate, not a promise, and it was set before Hearts lost two more players on Sunday, which is the main thing to weigh before you read it.

Kick-off is 17:45 UTC on Thursday 5 November (18:45 in Switzerland), round three of the Conference League league phase.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Thun	24.8%	4.03
Draw	27.6%	3.62
Hearts	47.6%	2.10	2.70, Unibet	+10.5 pts

The Desk published this card at 16:10 UTC on 30 October and the 2.70 was quoted at 03:48 UTC on 3 November. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance: 1 / 0.476 is about 2.10. A price of 2.70 implies 37.0%, so the edge is 47.6% minus 37.0%, or 10.5 points (the gap is computed before rounding). The three chances add up to 100%.

Form: two sides heading in opposite directions at home

Hearts are third in the Scottish Premiership with 20 points from 11 games, per Sky Sports. In Europe it has been flatter: one point from two games, including a 2–0 defeat at Trabzonspor on 22 October.

Thun are the Swiss champions, but this season has gone badly. They are ninth of 12 in the Swiss Super League, 21 points behind leaders Lugano, per BBC Sport, and before the weekend they had lost seven of nine, per the Hearts Standard. In the Conference League they have no points and no goals: single-goal defeats by Twente and Hajduk Split.

Then on Saturday they came from 4–1 down with 20 minutes left to win 5–4 at bottom side Lausanne, scoring four times in the last 20 minutes, with Brighton Labeau's winner six minutes into stoppage time. It ended a run of five games without a win. It also says plenty about their defence: four conceded to the bottom side.

Team news: Hearts are down to the bones

This is the part that moved since the card was priced. Hearts lost the Premier Sports Cup semi-final 2–1 to Hibs at Hampden on Sunday 1 November, two days after our number was set, and lost two more players in the first half:

• Tomas Magnusson, the Iceland midfielder, went to hospital with concussion and follows return-to-play protocol. Out until later in the month.
• Calvin Miller left on crutches with a knee problem and a scan to come.

They join defenders Christian Borchgrevink, Craig Halkett and Harry Milne, midfielders Oisin McEntee, Blair Spittal, Tom Renaud and Eduardo Ageu, and forward Rogers Mato. That is ten first-team players, per the Edinburgh Evening News. Yan Dhanda is not in the European squad, which leaves Laurent Mendy as the only fit specialist midfielder, and Wouter Vrancken does not expect any of the injured back for Wednesday's charter flight.

There is one more wrinkle. Thun play on an artificial pitch, and Vrancken said he was not sure Stephen Kingsley could play on it and again on Sunday. We look at what this list does to the price in more detail in Hearts without Magnusson and Miller: the Thun price.

Thun's news is quieter. Their goals at Lausanne came from across the side: Furkan Dursun, Labeau twice, Riccardo Braschi and an own goal, per BBC Sport.

How the match is likely to go

Hearts will probably have to play a midfield of one fit specialist plus whoever Vrancken moves in from defence or the wings. On a fast artificial surface that is a real handicap against a side that likes to throw players forward. Expect Thun to press early with the crowd behind them, and expect Hearts to defend deeper than they do in Scotland and look for set pieces and counter-attacks.

For goals, our card prices only the match result, so we give no number for both teams to score or over 2.5. The form is clear enough to say this much: Thun conceded four on Saturday and Hearts two on Sunday, and a stretched Hearts midfield is unlikely to tighten that. The draw sits at 27.6% on our numbers, a fair price of 3.62, which is higher than for a typical away favourite because the two sides are closer than the league tables suggest.

What could make us wrong

The obvious one: our 47.6% was set on 30 October with a Hearts squad that had eight men out, not ten, and with Magnusson available. Our chance does not move for news after the card is published; only the bookmaker price on the card refreshes. A depleted midfield on an artificial pitch, away from home, is exactly the kind of fact that should drag a number down.

Thun's European form is also likely worse than their level. Two 1–0 defeats are narrow, and they are champions for a reason. A 24.8% home chance is about one in four, which is not small.

For every Conference League fixture we price, see more Conference League predictions.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only, not goals, corners or handicaps. It does not include the injuries from Sunday's semi-final, so treat the edge as older than the price beside it. It does not know the line-ups, which come about an hour before kick-off. For what an edge like this means over many bets, read what a positive edge actually means.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.