Villarreal v Napoli prediction and odds
Villarreal v Napoli in the Champions League: we make Napoli 36.2% and saw 2.95 at Unibet, a 2.3 point gap on an old quote. Chances, absences, risks.
On this page
We have Villarreal v Napoli as close to even as a three-way match gets: Napoli 36.2%, Villarreal 35.8%, the draw 28.0%. Napoli is the selection because of the price: 2.95 at Unibet (NL) against our fair price of 2.76, a 2.3 point gap. That quote is from 3 October, so read it as old. This is an estimate, not a promise.
The game is Tuesday 13 October at 19:00 UTC at the Estadio de la Cerámica, matchday two of the league phase.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 35.8% | 2.79 | ||
| Draw | 28.0% | 3.57 | ||
| Napoli | 36.2% | 2.76 | 2.95, Unibet (NL) | +2.3 pts |
At 2.95 the market implied 33.9% for Napoli. A week is a long time in a Champions League market, and a weekend of league games sits in between. Why an old price needs care is in how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.
What the public evidence says
- Napoli are short of bodies. Transfermarkt lists Alessandro Buongiorno, Luca Marianucci, Scott McTominay and Giovane out.
- Villarreal may lose a winger. Tajon Buchanan came back from Canada with a thigh problem. TuttoNapoliCalcio says he will miss the game; Arena Napoli says he was still awaiting tests.
- Napoli play first. They host Frosinone on Saturday, per TuttoNapoliCalcio, so fatigue and rotation are open questions.
What could make us wrong
The draw is the most likely way this goes against Napoli. Team news is conflicting, and if McTominay's situation or Buchanan's tests go the other way the gap could close. The stale quote is the bigger worry: the 2.95 may no longer exist.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you Napoli will win; on our numbers they do not win almost two times in three. It does not tell you the price today. Check it before you read anything into the edge.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 make favourites for Villarreal v Napoli?
Nobody, really. We give Napoli 36.2%, Villarreal 35.8% and the draw 28.0%.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on Napoli?
2.95 at Unibet (NL), quoted at 23:47 UTC on 3 October. Our fair price is 2.76, a 2.3 point gap, but the quote is a week old.
Is Tajon Buchanan fit for Villarreal?
Unclear. He returned from Canada duty with a thigh problem and Italian and Spanish reports doubted he would face Napoli.