Napoli's injury list and the Villarreal price
Allegri named only 19 for Villarreal and Anguissa missed out. What Napoli's absences do to tonight's price, and why our Napoli card still shows +5.4 points.
Napoli travel to Villarreal with six players missing, but the list is older than it looks and our card has not turned against them. We make Napoli 36.2% tonight. The best price we saw was 3.25 at Unibet (NL), which implies 30.8%, so the gap is 5.4 points. Most of the absences were known before the Desk priced the game; the two returns, McTominay and Meret, are the newer news. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Who is in and who is out
| Player | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Frank Anguissa | Left out despite training | Arena Napoli |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | Out, long term | Football Italia |
| Mathias Olivera | Out | Football Italia |
| Costantino Favasuli | Out, a couple of months | Arena Napoli |
| Antonio Vergara | Out | Football Italia |
| Alisson Santos | Out | Football Italia |
| Scott McTominay | Back in the squad | Football Italia |
| Alex Meret | Back in the squad | Football Italia |
Massimiliano Allegri named only 19 players. Football Italia reports McTominay came off the bench in Saturday's 3–0 win over Frosinone after a minor heart procedure, and it is not yet clear whether he starts. On the other side, Sports Mole has Villarreal without Tajon Buchanan (hamstring), with Nicolas Pépé a doubt (eye). We looked at Buchanan's absence on its own in what a Buchanan injury does to a Villarreal price.
Why the edge survives
An absence moves a price once, when it becomes likely. Buongiorno has been out for weeks. Olivera, Vergara and Alisson Santos were already listed as injured before this squad was named. The only fresh negative on Monday was Anguissa, who had been pushing to be fit and was a doubt anyway. Against that, McTominay and Meret are positives the old quote did not know about.
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 35.8% | 2.79 | ||
| Draw | 28.0% | 3.57 | ||
| Napoli | 36.2% | 2.76 | 3.25, Unibet (NL) | +5.4 pts |
The 3.25 was quoted at 01:14 UTC on 9 October. That age matters more than any single name on the list: a four-day-old quote may simply not be there at kick-off. The full preview is Villarreal v Napoli prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Napoli will win. On our numbers they fail to win almost 64% of the time, and the three outcomes sit within eight points of each other. It does not tell you today's price either. Check the quote before you read anything into the gap.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who is missing for Napoli against Villarreal?
Anguissa, Buongiorno, Olivera, Favasuli, Vergara and Alisson Santos are not in the 19-man squad. Scott McTominay and Alex Meret are back in it.
Does Napoli's injury list kill the edge on the BAI8 card?
Not on our numbers. We still make Napoli 36.2% and the best price we saw, 3.25 at Unibet (NL), implies 30.8%, a 5.4 point gap.
Is Villarreal missing anyone?
Tajon Buchanan is out with a hamstring injury and Nicolas Pépé is a doubt with an eye problem, according to Sports Mole.