Virtus Bologna v Žalgiris prediction and odds

We make Virtus Bologna favourites at home to Žalgiris: Virtus 58.2%, Žalgiris 41.8%. The best price we saw on Virtus was 2.60 at 1xBet, against our fair price of 1.72. That is a 19.7 point positive edge, the widest on the Desk this morning. At 2.60 the bookmaker gives Virtus about 38%, so it makes Žalgiris favourites in Bologna. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Tip-off is 19:30 UTC on Wednesday 28 October (20:30 in Bologna), round 8 of the EuroLeague regular season.

Our numbers

Basketball has no draw: the moneyline includes overtime, so the card has two outcomes.

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Virtus Bologna	58.2%	1.72	2.60, 1xBet	+19.7 pts
Žalgiris	41.8%	2.39

The 2.60 was quoted at 04:38 UTC on 23 October, more than five days before tip-off. Our card was published at 09:59 UTC on 22 October. A quote that far out can move a long way; how to read one is in how to read a BAI8 price that is days old. Why two-way basketball prices behave differently from football's three-way market is in two-way basketball odds vs three-way football.

What the research weighs

• The table. Per the standings on the Virtus website, Virtus are 4–3 with a points difference of −2; Žalgiris are 2–4 with −27.
• Virtus's form. After losing their first two games, at Fenerbahçe and at Milan, Virtus won four in a row (Olympiacos, at Bayern, at Paris, Baskonia), then lost 90–81 at Hapoel Tel Aviv on 21 October.
• Fitness. Sportando's injury report for the Hapoel game listed no injury absences for Virtus.
• Žalgiris's week. Žalgiris host ASVEL tonight, play Jonava in the Lithuanian league on Sunday, then travel to Bologna, per 77.lt. That is three games in six days, with Partizan to follow on 30 October. Virtus play twice in that time: at Milan in the Italian league on Sunday, per Vu Nere Bologna, then this game. The schedules side by side are in Žalgiris play three games in six days.

What could make us wrong

The market makes Žalgiris favourites, and a 19.7 point gap is wide enough that we check it twice, for the reasons in why a very wide edge makes us look twice. Žalgiris won 88–81 in Barcelona this season, so they can win away. Our card was published before their game with ASVEL and before any injury news from it, and we do not move a published chance.

What this does not tell you

It does not say Virtus will win; on our numbers they lose about four times in ten. It covers the moneyline only, not the spread or the total, and the 2.60 is one bookmaker's quote five days out. Both teams play on Sunday, so either could pick up an injury before Wednesday.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.