Žalgiris play three games in six days
Žalgiris host ASVEL tonight, Jonava on Sunday, then travel to Virtus Bologna on Wednesday. What that schedule does, and does not do, to our Virtus price.
On this page
Žalgiris play three games in six days before they reach Bologna: ASVEL at home tonight, Jonava at home on Sunday, then Virtus Bologna away on Wednesday 28 October. Virtus play twice in the same stretch. It is a real but small difference, and it was public before our card went up, so it does not explain the 19.7 point gap between our Virtus price and the market's.
The two schedules
Dates per 77.lt for Žalgiris and per the Virtus website and Vu Nere Bologna for Virtus.
| Date | Žalgiris | Virtus Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 21 Oct | at Hapoel Tel Aviv (EuroLeague), lost 90–81 | |
| Fri 23 Oct | v ASVEL (EuroLeague) | |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Jonava (Lithuanian league) | at Milan (Italian league) |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Virtus Bologna | v Žalgiris |
| Fri 30 Oct | v Partizan (EuroLeague) | v Beşiktaş (EuroLeague) |
Both teams then play again two days later, so this is a double-game week in the EuroLeague for both. The difference is the Friday: Žalgiris have a game tonight that Virtus do not, and they travel for Wednesday while Virtus are at home.
What it does and does not do to the price
| Virtus Bologna | Žalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our chance (published 22 Oct, 09:59 UTC) | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Our fair price | 1.72 | 2.39 |
| Best price on Virtus, 23 Oct 04:38 UTC | 2.60, 1xBet | |
| Chance implied by 2.60 | 38.5% | |
| Edge | +19.7 pts |
The fixture list was set long before 22 October, so a schedule like this is already in our number, and probably in the market's too. It cannot be the reason the two disagree by almost 20 points. A gap that size usually means one of three things: a slow quote, news we do not have, or a real disagreement. We go through them in why a very wide edge makes us look twice. What would change things is an injury in tonight's game or on Sunday. The full preview is Virtus Bologna v Žalgiris prediction and odds.
Rotation is the bigger question
Teams playing three times in six days often rest players in the domestic game. If Žalgiris rest starters against Jonava on Sunday, Wednesday may look like any other game for them. If they cannot, because of injuries tonight, it may not. We will know more after Sunday.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you how many points a tired team loses; we do not have a reliable figure for that and will not invent one. It does not say Virtus will win: on our numbers they lose about four times in ten. And it says nothing about tonight's game against ASVEL, where our numbers are not public.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
When do Žalgiris play this week?
Friday 23 October at home to ASVEL in the EuroLeague, Sunday 25 October at home to Jonava in the Lithuanian league, Wednesday 28 October at Virtus Bologna, then Friday 30 October at home to Partizan, per 77.lt.
Do Virtus Bologna have a lighter week?
Slightly. Virtus played at Hapoel Tel Aviv on Wednesday 21 October and play at Milan in the Italian league on Sunday 25 October, so they come into the Žalgiris game with one game fewer in the same six days.
Does the schedule change BAI8's Virtus pick?
No. Our chance, Virtus 58.2%, was published on 22 October with the fixture list already known, and it does not move. The best price we saw was 2.60 at 1xBet, a 19.7 point edge.