Werder without Deman: the left-back problem
Olivier Deman needs a fitness test before Hoffenheim and Werder have no fit natural left-back behind him. What that does, and does not do, to our price.
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Olivier Deman is a real doubt for Werder Bremen against Hoffenheim on Saturday, and if he misses it Werder have no fit natural left-back. Our Desk card already makes Werder 44.0% to win with that doubt known, so his absence on its own is not a reason to think the number is badly wrong. It is a reason to watch the line-up.
What happened
Deman came off at half-time in the win at Mainz with tendon pain under his foot. Daniel Thioune said the pain was so bad he could not run properly, per 90min, and he sat out Tuesday's 3–2 cup defeat at Dortmund. Thioune said Werder could have risked him there but chose to protect him for Hoffenheim, and that a fitness test before the final session is the plan.
Before Mainz, Deman had started every competitive game this season and played every minute, per 90min. That is the clearest measure of how much the coach relies on him.
Who covers
| Option | Usual position | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Olivier Deman | Left-back | Doubtful, foot |
| Felix Agu | Full-back | Out |
| Moussa Ndiaye | Left-back | Out, groin |
| Mick Schmetgens | Centre-back | Fit; started at left-back at Dortmund |
Schmetgens started at left-back at Dortmund, per 90min. He is a trained centre-back who had played right-back earlier this season, so Werder would be asking a young player to play on his less familiar side.
What it does to the price
Our Desk card, published on 25 October, gives Werder 44.0%, the draw 23.2% and Hoffenheim 32.8%. The best Werder price we saw was 3.05 at Unibet (SE) at 03:50 UTC on 29 October. That is an 11.2 point gap between our chance and the market's. The full card is in our Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim prediction.
One defender is rarely the whole story of a price. Hoffenheim are short too: Alexander Prass is suspended and Tim Lemperle is doubtful, per the Bundesliga's team news, so the absences are not all on one side.
What this does not tell you
We do not publish a separate number for "Werder without Deman", so we cannot tell you how far our chance would move. If the market shortens Werder after a positive fitness test, the edge we quote shrinks even though our chance has not changed. Read the line-up an hour before kick-off, not this page.
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Common questions
Is Olivier Deman fit for Werder v Hoffenheim?
Not yet confirmed. He has tendon pain under his foot, missed the cup tie at Dortmund and Daniel Thioune plans a fitness test before the final training session.
Who plays left-back for Werder if Deman is out?
Most likely Mick Schmetgens, a centre-back by training, who started there at Dortmund. Felix Agu and Moussa Ndiaye are also injured.
Does Deman's injury change BAI8's Werder price?
Our card already makes Werder 44.0% with Deman listed as doubtful. A confirmed absence is a reason to re-read the card, not a reason to assume a big move.