What a short favourite really risks
A 1.18 favourite looks safe, but one loss wipes out more than five wins. What short prices really pay, with Rangers and Bayern from our Saturday record.
On this page
A short favourite risks a lot to win a little. At 1.18, a £10 bet wins £1.80, so one loss cancels about five and a half wins. The price only pays if the side wins more than 84.7% of the time. Short odds feel safe because they usually win; whether they are worth backing depends on whether they win often enough.
What short prices really pay
| Decimal price | Profit on £10 | Break-even chance | Wins one loss cancels |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | £1.80 | 84.7% | 5.6 |
| 1.23 | £2.30 | 81.3% | 4.3 |
| 1.50 | £5.00 | 66.7% | 2.0 |
| 2.00 | £10.00 | 50.0% | 1.0 |
The break-even chance is 1 divided by the price. The last column is the stake divided by the profit.
Two from our Saturday record
Two short favourites settled on our record on Saturday 10 October:
| Fixture | Side | Best price seen | Our chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers v Kilmarnock | Rangers | 1.18, Coral | 53.2% | Won |
| Augsburg v Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich | 1.23, GTbets | 55.5% | Lost |
In both cases our chance was far below the break-even line, which is why both cards showed a large negative edge. Rangers winning did not make 1.18 a good price on our numbers, and Bayern losing did not make it a bad one on the market's. The full day is in Saturday results: four from nine.
What it does to a bankroll
Short prices make results look smooth until they do not. Ten wins at 1.18 make £18 profit on £10 stakes; four losses in a hundred bets at that price is fine, but twenty is a disaster. Because each loss is so heavy, staking short favourites as if they were certain is the fastest way to a big drawdown. Our general rules are in staking without going broke.
What this does not tell you
It does not say short favourites are bad bets: if your chance is above the break-even line, the price can still be worth it. It does not tell you how reliable our own chance is for these sides, and two results prove nothing.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
How often must a 1.18 favourite win to break even?
About 84.7% of the time. That is 1 divided by 1.18. Below that, the bet loses money on average.
How many wins does one loss cancel at 1.18?
About 5.6. A £10 stake wins £1.80, so one lost £10 takes more than five winning bets to recover.
Are short favourites a safe bet?
No bet is safe. A short price only says the bookmaker thinks the side is likely to win; the cost of the rare loss is large.