What Paris FC's absences do to the Rennes game
Paris FC lose Sangui and Ikoné and may lose Chergui; Rennes lose Samba to suspension. What the team news does to Sunday's price, and what it does not.
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Paris FC go into Sunday's game with Rennes missing two players and worried about a third. Rennes are missing one, but it is their goalkeeper. On paper that sounds like Rennes have the better of the team news. In price terms it is closer than it looks: Paris FC's absences are mostly on the flanks, while a first-choice goalkeeper is the hardest single position to replace.
Who is out
According to L'Équipe, reported by But! Football Club, left-back Nhoa Sangui suffered a thigh relapse in a friendly during the international break and will miss several weeks. Jonathan Ikoné is also out with a thigh problem. Centre-back Samir Chergui came off at Lorient with a knee issue and is doubtful, per Lineups Today. Moses Simon has returned to training after illness but is not expected to start.
For Rennes, Lineups Today reports Brice Samba is suspended. RotoWire lists no Rennes injuries at all, and the side scored four against Auxerre last weekend.
Why the price may not move much
Losing a left-back and a wide forward changes the shape of a side, not usually its level. Paris FC's attack runs through Lassine Sinayoko, who RotoWire notes has started all six league games and scored four. He is fit. So are Ilan Kebbal and Pablo Pagis behind him.
Chergui is the one to watch. If he misses out, Paris FC start with a changed centre-back pairing and a changed left-back on the same afternoon. Two changes in one back four is when an injury list starts to cost goals.
A goalkeeper suspension works the other way. The reserve keeper has fewer minutes, and the market tends to shade the side by a little rather than a lot, because most matches do not turn on a goalkeeper.
What our number says
The Desk card has Paris FC 49.8%, the draw 25.3% and Rennes 24.8%. The best Paris FC price we saw was 2.34 at Betfair, quoted at 04:35 UTC on 17 October, against our fair 2.01: a 7.1 point edge. The full card is in Paris FC v Rennes prediction and odds. We cannot split that number into "this much for Samba, this much for Sangui". The research reads the whole fixture.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you whether Chergui plays; that will be known on Sunday. It does not say Paris FC will win, and on our numbers they fail to just over half the time. Injury news is public, so the market reads the same reports we do. A price that has not moved after the news may simply be one where the news was already in.
Common questions
Who is injured for Paris FC against Rennes?
Nhoa Sangui (thigh relapse) and Jonathan Ikoné (thigh) are out. Samir Chergui is doubtful with a knee problem, and Moses Simon is back in training after illness but not expected to start.
Is Brice Samba playing for Rennes against Paris FC?
No. Lineups Today reports the Rennes goalkeeper is suspended. Rennes otherwise list no injuries.
Do the injuries change BAI8's Paris FC v Rennes number?
Our Desk card already includes the research. It has Paris FC 49.8%, the draw 25.3% and Rennes 24.8%, with 2.34 at Betfair on Paris FC, a 7.1 point edge.