Why BAI8 prices only the match result
All 447 settled BAI8 calls are on the match result. Why we price one market, what that keeps honest, and what it leaves out for goals and specials bettors.
On this page
Every one of the 447 settled calls on the BAI8 record is on the same market: the match result. In football that means home, draw or away. In the other sports on the record, ice hockey, American football, basketball, baseball and MMA, it means the winner. No call is on goals, scorers, corners or handicaps. That is deliberate, and this piece explains why, and what it costs you if those are the markets you bet.
What the record holds
| Sport | Settled calls |
|---|---|
| Football | 398 |
| American football | 17 |
| Ice hockey | 14 |
| Basketball | 8 |
| Baseball | 8 |
| MMA | 2 |
| Total | 447 |
Every one of them is marked as the head-to-head market in the record data. The results page lists them all, with the outcome of each.
Reason one: the method starts from that market
As set out in how BAI8 prices a fixture, an assessment starts from the complete match-result market with the bookmaker's margin removed, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Research then moves it. That starting point is strong because the match-result market is the deepest one: published studies of bookmaker odds, such as Štrumbelj and Šikonja's on European leagues, find them good forecasts of results.
A goals market would need something more: a view of how many goals each side scores and how they are spread. That is a different model with different inputs, and BAI8 does not run one for publication. Pricing it anyway would mean publishing numbers we cannot trace back to a stated method.
Reason two: the research maps to the result
The research aspects look for things like availability, rest, travel and what is at stake. Most of what they find bears on who wins. A suspended centre-back, such as Rizespor's Christopher Sagnan this weekend, clearly moves the result. How it moves the chance of over 2.5 goals or a particular first scorer is much less clear, and we would rather not guess. The Rizespor analysis shows how that news is handled.
Reason three: one market keeps the record checkable
Each call is one outcome at one price, quoted at a stated time, settled on the final result. Anyone can check it. The edge is always our chance minus the chance implied by the price, as explained in what a positive edge actually means. Mixing in markets with very different prices and hit rates would make the record far harder to read, and easier to flatter.
What it leaves out
If you bet goals, scorers or handicaps, a BAI8 card is only a partial input. Today's Desk card for Willem II v PEC Zwolle has Zwolle 51.8%, the draw 23.7% and Willem II 24.5%. That caps anything that needs a Zwolle win: a winning margin or a win to nil for Zwolle can never be likelier than 51.8%. Beyond that ceiling the card is silent. Our explainers, from Poisson in football betting to clean sheets, show the arithmetic, but they use illustrative inputs, not BAI8 numbers.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you the match result is the best market to bet. It is the one we can price with a stated method, which is a different claim. A single market also means a single source of error: if the starting price is thin or the research is wrong, every call carries that. And 447 calls is still a modest sample, as set out in how many bets before a record means anything.
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Common questions
Which markets does BAI8 price?
The match result. In football that is home, draw or away; in two-way sports it is the winner. All 447 settled calls on the record are on that market, and the Desk does not publish numbers for goals, scorers or handicaps.
Why does BAI8 not price over/under or both teams to score?
Because the assessment starts from the full match-result market with the margin removed and moves it by research. Goals markets would need a separate model of how many goals each side scores, which BAI8 does not publish.
Can I use a BAI8 card for other markets?
Partly. A card's chance caps related bets: a win to nil or a winning margin for a side can never be likelier than that side's win chance. But the card does not tell you how the chance splits across scores.
Does pricing one market make the record easier to check?
Yes. Every call is settled on one outcome, against a price quoted at a stated time, so anyone can check the result and the sum. Mixing markets would make calls harder to compare.