Why BAI8 publishes negative-edge calls
Thirty of the 40 calls on our record had a negative edge at the price we saw. Why those stay published, what they are for, and the weakness they expose.
On this page
We publish negative-edge calls because the probability comes first and the price comparison second. Our research works out a chance for every outcome before it looks at any bookmaker. If the best price then pays less than that chance is worth, the card says so with a minus sign. Hiding those cards would make the record look better than the method is.
What the record shows
Of the 40 calls settled on our record by 11 October:
| Edge at the price we saw | Calls | Won | Expected wins (our chances) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 7 | 1 | 3.2 |
| Negative | 30 | 15 | 15.7 |
| None measured | 3 | 2 | 1.4 |
The negative-edge group won 15 against 15.7 expected. The positive-edge group won one against 3.2 expected. Seven calls are far too few to judge, but it is the honest number and we are not going to hide it.
What a negative edge is for
A negative-edge card still tells you something: our chance for each outcome and the fair price that goes with it. If you find a better price than the one we saw, you can do the comparison yourself; the arithmetic is in fair price vs best price on a BAI8 card. It also keeps us calibrated in public: every probability we publish gets settled, not only the ones that looked attractive.
The weakness this exposes
Most of our cards land on the negative side because bookmakers are good at pricing and their margin pushes every price down. A model that finds a positive edge on a few cards a day will often be finding noise, not value. That is why the settlement of positive-edge calls, explained in how a BAI8 call gets settled on the record, matters more to us than the overall win count.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you whether our probabilities are well calibrated; 40 calls cannot. It does not mean negative-edge calls are tips to avoid the team, and it does not say how the price moved after we saw it.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What is a negative-edge call on BAI8?
A call where the best price we saw implies a higher chance than our own number. The bookmaker is offering less than we think the outcome is worth.
How many BAI8 calls had a negative edge?
Thirty of the 40 settled on the record by 11 October 2026. Seven had a positive edge and three had none we could measure.
Should I bet a negative-edge call?
On our numbers, no: the price pays less than the chance is worth. The call is still published so the record and the probability are public.