How a BAI8 call gets settled on the record
Every BAI8 Desk call is settled on a public record, misses included. What gets recorded, when a call counts as won or lost, and what the record cannot show.
Every call on our Desk is written to a public record when it is published, and settled against the real result once the match finishes. Won or lost is judged on the market the call was made in, at the side we named. Misses stay on the record. Nothing is edited after the fact.
What a record entry holds
Each entry keeps the same fields we show on the Desk card, frozen at publication:
| Field | Example from the record |
|---|---|
| Fixture | Columbus Blue Jackets v Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Market and side | Match result, Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Our chance | 51.3% |
| Best price seen | 2.06, Betfair |
| Edge at publication | +2.7 pts |
| Outcome | Lost |
Those numbers are the ones we published, not ones recalculated later.
How a call settles
- Market first. A football match result is three-way, so a draw loses for either team. NHL and NFL moneylines include overtime, so there are only two outcomes. Why that matters is in two-way vs three-way: why the edge looks different.
- Result after the match. The record marks the call won or lost once the result is in. Friday's football calls were settled the same evening; Friday night's NHL games early on Saturday morning.
- Misses included. Of 33 settled calls so far, 17 lost. They are all still there; the latest night is in Friday results: six misses from seven.
Where it is weak
- Small sample. Thirty-three calls cannot prove calibration either way.
- Price capture. The record stores the best price we saw, at a time. Some entries have no price, such as Lens v Lyon, and a reader may not have got that price.
- Win or lose only. It shows the result, not whether the price beat the closing line, which is a better long-run test.
What this does not tell you
The record does not tell you what to bet, and a good run on it is no promise of the next one. It tells you what we said and what happened.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What does the BAI8 record contain?
Every published Desk call: the fixture, the side, our probability, the best price we saw with bookmaker and time, and how it settled.
When does a BAI8 call count as won?
When the side we published wins the market it was called in. In a football match result a draw is a loss for either team.
Does BAI8 remove bad calls from the record?
No. Misses stay on the record next to wins, and the record is public.