9 November results: 13 of 16 won, mostly short favourites

Sixteen BAI8 calls with a Monday 9 November kick-off have settled: 13 won and 3 lost. That reads like a great day and it was not. Fourteen of the sixteen were negative-edge calls, mostly college basketball favourites priced between 1.01 and 1.53, and at one unit a call the whole day made 0.60 units. Of the two positive-edge calls, one won and one lost. Every figure here comes from the public BAI8 results board and the Desk record.

The window runs from 18:00 UTC on 9 November to the US evening games that tipped off at 00:00 and 00:10 UTC on 10 November, which are still Monday night in the United States.

The two positive-edge calls

Match	Our pick	Our chance	Price	Edge	Result
Kristiansund v Vålerenga	Vålerenga	42.9%	2.45, GTbets	+2.1 pts	Lost
Hawks v Lakers	Lakers	57.9%	1.82, Novig	+3.0 pts	Won

Both edges were narrow, and one of two is about what narrow edges do. At one unit each the pair lost 0.18 units: the Lakers paid 0.82, the Vålerenga stake went.

The fourteen negative-edge calls

A negative-edge call is the Desk telling you who it thinks wins, and that the price is too short to back. Twelve of the fourteen won. The two that lost:

Match	Our pick	Our chance	Price	Edge	Result
Sabadell v Real Sociedad B	Sabadell	46.1%	1.75, Betfair	−11.0 pts	Lost
Cincinnati v Minnesota	Cincinnati	59.6%	1.35, Kalshi	−14.5 pts	Lost

The twelve winners included Miami, Tennessee, Texas and UConn at 1.01, Georgia at 1.03, Clemson at 1.03, UIC at 1.06, Bowling Green at 1.13 and Columbia at 1.18, plus Indiana at 1.53, Towson at 1.43 and Plymouth Parkway, in the FA Cup, at 2.35. Nine winners at 1.18 or shorter returned 0.47 units between them. The two losers at 1.75 and 1.35 cost two units. Plymouth Parkway's 1.35 units of profit is most of why the negative-edge group finished up, at 0.78 units.

That is the point of publishing the edge as well as the pick. A pick at 1.01 can win, and it will win most days, but the price leaves nothing to win. Why we still publish these is in why BAI8 publishes negative-edge calls.

Expected against actual

Add up our own chances for the sixteen picks and you get 11.2 expected winners. Thirteen won. That is a little better than our numbers said, and well inside normal variation for one evening. It says nothing about whether the chances are right; for that you need hundreds of calls, as how many bets before a record means anything explains.

The running record

The public record now holds 673 calls: 378 won, 289 lost and 6 returned. Of the settled positive-edge calls, 88 of 211 won; of the settled zero and negative-edge calls, 290 of 456 won. Positive-edge calls back more outsiders, so they win less often by design. Whether they pay more than they cost over a long run is the question the record exists to answer, misses included.

Three weekend previews still have no outcome on the record: Rizespor v Erzurumspor, Samsunspor v Konyaspor and La Calera v Huachipato. We settle them when the record does.

What this does not tell you

It counts one unit a call at the quoted best price, which nobody gets every time. It does not show scores, closing prices or the members-only calls that did not settle in this window. One evening of 16 results is noise, not evidence about the model.