Our week on the record: 104 calls, 52 won
From 24 to 30 October the BAI8 Desk settled 104 calls, won 52 and lost 52, down 2.47 units at level stakes. The misses, the edges and what it means.
On this page
From 24 to 30 October the BAI8 Desk settled 104 calls on games played that week: 52 won and 52 lost. One unit on every call at the best price we quoted would have lost 2.47 units. Our own chances said to expect 52.7 wins, so the week landed almost exactly where the numbers pointed. The money went the wrong way mostly in calls we did not rate as value.
How did BAI8 do from 24 to 30 October
| Group | Calls | Won | Lost | Level stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All calls | 104 | 52 | 52 | −2.47 units |
| Positive edge | 42 | 19 | 23 | +3.23 units |
| No positive edge | 62 | 33 | 29 | −5.70 units |
Level stakes means one unit on each call at the price on the record. Counts are by the date the game was played, from the BAI8 record on 31 October. Across all 347 settled calls to date, the record is 198 won and 149 lost.
Did the positive-edge calls make money
Yes, by 3.23 units, while losing more often than winning. That is what backing longer prices looks like: Sunderland at 3.85 against Brentford and Cambuur at 2.90 at Willem II paid for several misses. The biggest edges of the week:
| Game | Our call | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II v Cambuur | Cambuur | 2.90 | +13.9 pts | Won |
| Liverpool v Chelsea, EFL Cup | Liverpool | 2.65 | +12.5 pts | Lost |
| Portland v Charlotte | Charlotte | 3.36 | +11.3 pts | Lost |
| Sunderland v Brentford, EFL Cup | Sunderland | 3.85 | +11.1 pts | Won |
| Hibernian v Celtic | Celtic | 1.81 | +10.8 pts | Won |
| Liverpool v Brighton | Brighton | 3.34 | +9.9 pts | Lost |
| Charlton v Norwich | Charlton | 3.55 | +9.8 pts | Lost |
The Liverpool cup call was marked lost even though Liverpool went through: the tie went to penalties, per Chelsea FC, and our call was on the match result, which settles after 90 minutes; see to qualify betting explained.
By competition
Serie A was the best league of the week, 12 won from 18 (+3.93 units), and the Turkish Super League went 7 from 8 (+5.38). The Bundesliga was the worst, 3 from 8 (−3.69), with Primeira Liga 3 from 8 (−3.08) and the Premier League 3 from 9 (−2.67). The Championship was 4 from 11 (−1.48).
Is a 50% week bad
Not on its own. A week of 104 calls swings by several wins either way by luck alone, which is why we explain how many bets before a record means anything. The 52.7 expected against 52 actual says our chances were about right in total. Whether they were right at each level is a calibration question, covered in what a calibration curve shows.
What this does not tell you
One week cannot tell you whether the positive-edge calls are a real edge or a lucky run; 42 bets is far too few. It also uses the best price we saw, which you may not have got. Losses are on the record with the wins, and this page leaves none of them out.
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Common questions
How did BAI8 do from 24 to 30 October?
104 settled calls, 52 won and 52 lost. One unit on every call at the price we quoted would have lost 2.47 units.
Did the positive-edge calls make money?
Yes, a little. The 42 calls where our chance beat the price won 19 times and lost 23, and one unit on each would have made 3.23 units.
Is a 50% week bad for BAI8?
Not on its own. Our own chances added up to 52.7 expected wins for these 104 calls, and we got 52. That is close to what the numbers said.