Eibar vs Cádiz prediction and team news

BAI8 backs Eibar to beat Cádiz at Ipurua on Sunday, and gives them a 50% chance: a draw is 25.8% and a Cádiz win 24.3%. We still pass on betting it. The best Eibar price we found was 1.71 at Unibet, and that price needs Eibar to win 58.5% of the time. Our number is 8.5 points short of that.

BAI8 has researched this match in depth: open the Eibar vs Cádiz page to see the full call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the table, the form, the team news and the working behind the number.

Kick-off is Sunday 15 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC (18:30 in Spain) at the Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, matchday 14 of LaLiga Hypermotion, which this site files under La Liga 2. LaLiga's match page lists the time, and a Ceuta paper and Cadiznoticias both say 18:30 Spanish time with LaLiga TV Hypermotion as the channel.

Our prediction

Chances and prices below are BAI8's, assessed on 8 November 2026. Bookmaker prices were quoted that evening and will have moved since.

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found	Quoted
Eibar	50%	2.00	1.71, Unibet	8 Nov, 20:34 UTC
Draw	25.8%	3.88	4.23, 1xBet	8 Nov, 20:33 UTC
Cádiz	24.3%	4.12	5.28, Pinnacle	8 Nov, 20:33 UTC

Each chance has a range around it. Eibar: 34.1% to 69.6%. Draw: 17.8% to 30.5%. Cádiz: 11.9% to 39.7%. Those are wide, and they are the honest part of the call.

The verdict is a pass: neither a majority likelihood nor positive value. In BAI8's words, the pick does not clear the strict 50.00% line, its probability does not beat the break-even of the quoted price, and the conservative interval crosses break-even, so the apparent edge is not robust. Confidence is moderate (0.61), with source agreement at 0.865.

What it means for someone thinking of betting: Eibar are the likeliest result, but 1.71 pays for 58.5%. Take a stake of 10 at 1.71. It returns 17.10 if Eibar win. At our 50% chance the average return is 8.55 for every 10 staked, a loss of 1.45 per 10 over many identical bets. At our fair price of 2.00 it would break even. The edge is minus 8.5 points. That is the whole case for passing.

The one price that looks long is Cádiz at 5.28 at Pinnacle, against our fair 4.12. That is a longer price than we think the outcome deserves, not a verdict that Cádiz will win, and we do not make a call on it: our pick is Eibar. The only bookmaker consensus we could build came from a single book, so treat the market comparison below as one opinion. For how a fair price and an edge are worked out, see what a positive edge actually means.

Why we back Eibar

The table. LaLiga's match page shows Eibar 4th with 23 points from 12 matches (7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, 21 goals for, 14 against) and Cádiz 20th with 10 points from 13 (2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, 16 for, 18 against). A thirteen-point gap is most of why we make them favourites. Eibar have played one match fewer than Cádiz. The Ceuta paper that carried the same table did not explain the difference.

Eibar's form. Eibar opened with a record run. The club called their 3–2 win over Las Palmas on matchday 7 a sixth consecutive victory, "a first in the club's professional history", with goals from Mada, Álvaro Rodríguez and Javi Martón. Since then the results have cooled: a 3–1 win at Albacete, a 3–1 defeat at Oviedo, a 1–1 draw with Mallorca, a 2–0 loss at Córdoba, where Eibar failed to score for the first time this season, and a 1–1 draw at home to Almería on 31 October, when Pejiño equalised in the 87th minute against the second-placed side. On Tuesday 10 November they won their Copa del Rey first-round tie at CD Pamplona 3–0, with goals from Javi Martón and a double from Jon Magunazelaia, per Kirolak Eibin.

Cádiz's form. Cádiz are on their first weeks under Borja Jiménez, whose first game was a 3–1 comeback win over Ceuta on 25 October after trailing at half-time. They then lost 2–1 at home to Oviedo on matchday 13. Urko Izeta scored in the 83rd minute after Oviedo led 2–0 at half-time. The Ceuta paper counts one win and four defeats in their last five, and Cádiz have scored 16 and conceded 18 in 13 league games.

Head to head. The head-to-head helps a little: Eibar beat Cádiz 3–1 on 1 March 2026. One game is not a trend, and a different squad and a different coach make it less relevant. What carries more weight is the gap in the table and Cádiz's goal difference of minus 2.

What the market thinks. The single book we could convert gave Eibar 58.6%, the draw 23.4% and Cádiz 18% as the market consensus. We are 8.6 points lower on Eibar and 6.3 points higher on Cádiz. That is the disagreement: the market sees a near-certain home win, and our model, after weighing the thin recent form and wide uncertainty, sees a favourite that wins half the time. Our research did not find a pattern signal for this fixture, so the call rests on the model and the dated team news below.

Team news

Nothing here is a confirmed line-up. Clubs rarely name one before the day, and the notes below are dated club reports.

Eibar. The club's medical reports list Imanol García de Albéniz with a tear in the right soleus, Juan Bernat with a tear in the right hamstring, and Elijah Gift with a tear in the left hamstring. None of the three reports gives a return date. Gift's report says he had to leave his most recent match, and Bernat was back in the squad for the Almería game on 31 October, so check the date on each report before leaning on it.

Cádiz. The club's medical report on Vladys describes a myofascial injury in the pectineus, confirmed by MRI after the Ceuta game, with his return pending. Jandro had an adductor injury in the same report. The report is undated, and the club has not said whether either is available. Kenan Toibibou has been called up by Comoros and Bojan Kovacevic by Serbia's under-21s, per Cadiznoticias on 11 November. Cádiz began a week of closed-door sessions at their Bahía de Cádiz training ground on Tuesday, the same source reports.

Cádiz's match against Oviedo was also a tribute to Jesús de Miguel: the club says play was stopped in the ninth minute to remember him.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	BAI8 chance
1–1	12.3%
1–0	10.3%
2–1	9.6%
2–0	8.9%
0–0	7.3%

The single likeliest scoreline is a draw, 1–1, even though Eibar are the likeliest team to win. That is how football probability works: a 50% win chance is spread over many scores, while the draw sits on a few. On goals we give over 1.5 a 75.8% chance, over 2.5 a 50.8% and over 3.5 a 28.7%. Over 2.5 is close to a coin flip, which fits a match we rate as competitive rather than one-sided. We hold no bookmaker price for those goals lines, so we make no value call on them. For how to read these, see our guide to football betting markets.

What could make this wrong

• Wide ranges. Eibar's chance runs from 34.1% to 69.6%. Cádiz's runs from 11.9% to 39.7%. At the low end of its range Eibar are still not far from Cádiz's best case.
• A new manager. Cádiz changed coach in late October. Borja Jiménez said at his presentation he wants teams that attack in fast transitions and carry the weight of the match. A new coach can change a team in two games more than a model sees.
• Eibar's injuries. Three players have club-reported muscle tears and we do not know who starts.
• Workload. Eibar played in the Copa del Rey on Tuesday 10 November, five days before this game. Rotation is possible, and we do not state it as fact.
• No weather or travel data. The public forecast ended before Sunday, and we found no verified travel itinerary for Cádiz.
• One bookmaker. Our market view rests on one converted book, so the gap between 58.6% and our 50% could narrow with more prices.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you who will win: a 50% favourite loses half the time on our own numbers. It does not confirm either line-up, and the injury reports are undated or weeks old in places. The prices were quoted on 8 November and may be gone. We did not find a source for Eibar's and Cádiz's positions that updates after the Oviedo result beyond LaLiga's page and one paper, so check the table on Sunday. The full assessment is on the Eibar vs Cádiz match page, and BAI8's Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. For the method behind these calls, start with how to bet on football with a model.