BAI8 record: 70 from 111 and +3.84 units
Desk record through 16 October: 111 settled, 70 won, 41 lost, +3.84 flat units. Thursday's three misses included. What the sample can and cannot say.
On this page
The Desk record now sits at 111 settled calls: 70 won, 41 lost, +3.84 flat units at the prices we quoted (about 3.6% return on the priced stakes). That is the honest headline. It includes misses. It does not prove the edges are real.
The scoreboard
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Settled | 111 |
| Won | 70 |
| Lost | 41 |
| Flat units (priced) | +3.84 |
| Return share | 3.6% |
How each line is graded is in how a BAI8 call gets settled on the record. We publish the same board whether it is green or red.
Thursday's three misses
On 15 October the record took three priced losses that matter for honesty:
| Fixture | Pick | Our chance | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia v Midtjylland | Midtjylland | 47.8% | 1.58, Coolbet | −15.5 pts | Lost |
| Craiova v Getafe | Getafe | 36.3% | 2.53, Pinnacle | −3.3 pts | Lost (1–1) |
| Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | Sparta Prague | 45.9% | 1.38, Nordic Bet | −26.6 pts | Lost |
Celta Vigo v Juventus went the other way: Juventus won 2–1 on a card we had at −8.8 points, which we already wrote up. Wins on short, negative-edge favourites inflate a win count without proving a positive-edge process. The earlier cut of positive-edge calls is still the cleaner test, and it was ugly in our positive-edge calls: four from thirteen.
What a sample this size can say
One hundred and eleven settled lines is more than a week of noise and less than a proof. Expected wins track the sum of our chances; variance around that sum is still large. The arithmetic for why is in how many bets before a record means anything. +3.84 units can arrive from a real edge, from a lucky cluster of short favourites, or from both.
What this does not tell you
It does not say next week's cards will finish green. It does not say you should stake like the unit column. It is a public ledger of published chances against quoted prices, nothing more.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What is the BAI8 Desk record right now?
111 settled calls, 70 won and 41 lost, for +3.84 flat one-unit profit at the quoted prices (about 3.6% return on priced stakes).
Did Thursday 15 October go well?
Many short favourites with negative edges landed, but three priced calls lost: Midtjylland, Getafe and Sparta Prague. Wins on negative-edge shorts are not the same as proving positive edges.
Does +3.84 units prove the edges are real?
No. A sample this size cannot separate a small edge from noise. See the linked sample-size piece.