When sixteen wins still leave you flat
A 16–5 day on the Desk can still be a flat or down bankroll if most wins were short negative-edge favourites. Hit rate is not P&L.
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Sunday's Desk sheet went 16 won and 5 lost. That sounds like a green day. It might not have been. Most of those winners were short prices published with a negative edge. A few longer losers can erase a pile of 1.30s. Hit rate is not P&L.
Why short winners feel better than they pay
At 1.30 you risk 10 to win 3. At 3.07 you risk 10 to win about 21. One Strasbourg-sized miss needs several short favourites to break even, before you even ask whether those shorts had edge. Sunday's published Strasbourg card lost at 3.07; several NFL and league favourites won at prices under 1.50. The count looks strong. The cash does not automatically follow. Detail on the day: Sunday results: sixteen from twenty-one.
Sort by edge, not by smile
Of Sunday's four positive-edge calls on the record sheet, two won (Palace, 49ers) and two lost (Strasbourg, Celta). That 2–2 is a more honest read of the soft-price subset than 16–5. Negative-edge winners still happened; they are not evidence the price was good. For the staking frame, see staking without going broke and what a short favourite really risks.
A simple check before you celebrate
Unit stakes make the gap obvious. Ten units at 1.32 that win return about thirteen units total (stake back plus three of profit). Ten units at 3.07 that lose are simply gone. You need several short wins to rebuild one longer miss, which is why a 16–5 headline can still leave the ledger flat once you weight by price. Keep the day in a spreadsheet with decimal odds and units, not in a win-loss ticker.
Ask three questions after a busy day: what was the average decimal price of the winners, how did the positive-edge subset finish, and what would unit stakes have done in cash terms. If you cannot answer the third, you are reading a tipster scoreboard, not a bankroll.
What this does not tell you
It does not compute your P&L. We do not know your stakes. It also does not say to avoid short favourites forever; it says to stop using hit rate as the main scoreboard.
Common questions
Can you win most bets and still lose money?
Yes. Short favourites pay little. A few longer losers can wipe a stack of short winners.
What should I track instead of hit rate?
Closing-line value and results sorted by edge, plus unit P&L. Hit rate alone hides the price you took.
Did Sunday's 16 from 21 mean a green day?
Not by itself. Most winners were negative-edge shorts; two of four positive-edge calls lost.