Our Champions League calls so far, settled

BAI8 has published 18 Champions League calls that have settled this season: 10 won and 8 lost. At the quoted prices, one unit on each comes to −0.66 units. Our own chances added up to 8.8 expected winners, so ten is a little better than our numbers said, but the four positive-edge calls have won only once. Tonight one more card is open on the Desk, Real Betis v Feyenoord, and it is the widest edge we have published in the competition.

Tonight's open card

Fixture	Our pick	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Real Betis v Feyenoord	Feyenoord	37.8%	2.65	5.60, Unibet (NL), 04:51 UTC 21 Oct	+19.9 pts

Kick-off is 19:00 UTC in Seville. The full card, team news and the reasons we doubt our own number are in Real Betis v Feyenoord prediction. On 18 October we also published Club Brugge at 60.6% at home to Lens, a 14.1 point edge at 2.15, in Club Brugge v Lens prediction. The rest of tonight's calls are on the Desk for members, and every one of them reaches the public record once it settles. Our Bayern Munich v Arsenal call is one of those; the team news is in Bayern Munich v Arsenal preview.

Every settled call

Matchday	Fixture	Our pick	Our chance	Price seen	Edge	Result
2	RC Lens v Sporting	Sporting	39.1%	2.70, Coolbet	+2.1 pts	Won
2	Villarreal v Napoli	Napoli	36.2%	3.25, Unibet (NL)	+5.4 pts	Lost
2	Atlético Madrid v Man United	Atlético	42.6%	2.31, GTbets	−0.6 pts	Won
2	Real Betis v Porto	Betis	36.8%	2.27, 1xBet	−7.2 pts	Won
2	Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund	Dortmund	37.8%	2.14, 1xBet	−8.9 pts	Lost
2	AS Roma v Real Madrid	Real Madrid	38.9%	1.95, Coolbet	−12.4 pts	Won
2	Arsenal v Lille	Arsenal	59.8%	1.30, 1xBet	−17.1 pts	Won
2	Galatasaray v Barcelona	Barcelona	50.4%	1.34, 1xBet	−24.2 pts	Won
2	Inter v Club Brugge	Inter	48.3%	1.31, GTbets	−28.0 pts	Lost
2	Viking FK v Bayern Munich	Bayern	60.1%	1.12, BetMGM	−29.1 pts	Lost
3	Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona	Barcelona	47.2%	2.60, Betfred (UK)	+8.8 pts	Lost
3	VfB Stuttgart v Atlético Madrid	Atlético	51.0%	2.35, Coolbet	+8.4 pts	Lost
3	Porto v PSV Eindhoven	Porto	52.8%	1.78, Unibet (NL)	−3.4 pts	Lost
3	Napoli v Bodø/Glimt	Napoli	53.8%	1.64, 1xBet	−7.1 pts	Won
3	Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha	Fenerbahçe	48.9%	1.70, Unibet (NL)	−9.9 pts	Lost
3	AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava	Roma	68.6%	1.18, BetOnline.ag	−16.2 pts	Won
3	Liverpool v Villarreal	Liverpool	42.6%	1.57, 1xBet	−21.1 pts	Won
3	Manchester City v AEK Athens	Man City	67.7%	1.08, Betfair	−24.9 pts	Won

The competition against our own numbers

	Calls	Expected wins	Actual wins	Units
Matchday 2 (13–14 Oct)	10	4.5	6	+1.87
Matchday 3, Tuesday (20 Oct)	8	4.3	4	−2.53
Positive edge	4	1.7	1	−1.30
Negative edge	14	7.1	9	+0.64
All	18	8.8	10	−0.66

Expected wins is our chances added up; how we use it is in how we count expected wins on a results day. Tuesday's full day, including the FA Cup and Championship calls, is in Tuesday's 13 calls.

What stands out

Most calls are on short favourites. Ten of the 18 had prices of 1.78 or shorter, and most of those were negative-edge calls: we picked the likelier side while thinking the price was too short. That is why the hit rate looks better than the units.

The edges have been narrow and few. Only four calls had a positive edge, the widest +8.8 points. Tonight's Feyenoord card, at +19.9, is far outside that range, which is a reason for more caution, not less, as why a very wide edge makes us look twice explains.

What this does not tell you

Eighteen calls cannot tell you whether we price the Champions League well. A single goal, such as Vitinha's late one in Paris or Julián Álvarez's in Stuttgart, swings a small sample like this. It also ignores the closing line, which is the better test of whether a price was beatable. This page will be updated as more calls settle.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.