Bayern won in Madrid: Tuesday's 18 settled calls

Tuesday 3 November was a winning day on the record, but not for the reason you would want. Eighteen BAI8 calls settled, 12 won and 6 lost. At one unit on every call at the best price we saw, that is +6.29 units. Our own chances said about 8.2 wins were expected from the 18, so 12 is nearly four over forecast. The wins came from short-priced calls with negative edges, Bayern in Madrid among them. The calls where we thought the price was wrong went 2 from 7.

Two more calls, both in the Copa del Rey, were voided because the ties were postponed. They count as neither a win nor a loss.

Every call, settled

Match	Our call	Price	Our chance	Edge	Score	Result	Units
Atlético Madrid v Bayern	Bayern	2.05	42.4%	−6.3	0–2	Won	+1.05
Barcelona v Aston Villa	Barcelona	1.23	54.7%	−26.6	3–0	Won	+0.23
Bodø/Glimt v Lille	Bodø/Glimt	1.92	61.9%	+9.8	0–0	Lost	−1.00
Feyenoord v Inter	Inter	1.75	43.4%	−13.8	0–3	Won	+0.75
LASK v Slovan Bratislava	LASK	1.52	61.6%	−4.2	4–0	Won	+0.52
Man Utd v Roma	Roma	2.94	43.9%	+9.8	3–2	Lost	−1.00
Villarreal v PSG	PSG	1.67	45.6%	−14.3	0–6	Won	+0.67
Galatasaray v Stuttgart	Galatasaray	2.33	40.2%	−2.7	2–0	Won	+1.33
Shakhtar v Sporting	Sporting	2.04	36.7%	−12.4	0–1	Won	+1.04
Birmingham v Millwall	Birmingham	2.02	48.4%	−1.1	3–0	Won	+1.02
Blackburn v Stoke	Blackburn	2.50	41.4%	+1.4	1–2	Lost	−1.00
Charlton v Bolton	Charlton	2.20	38.9%	−6.5	0–1	Lost	−1.00
Derby v Norwich	Norwich	2.07	42.7%	−5.6	0–4	Won	+1.07
Portsmouth v Swansea	Portsmouth	2.80	41.5%	+5.8	3–1	Won	+1.80
Preston v Sheffield Utd	Sheffield Utd	2.43	47.2%	+6.1	2–3	Won	+1.43
QPR v Burnley	QPR	2.25	50.9%	+6.5	1–1	Lost	−1.00
Watford v Lincoln	Watford	2.38	41.8%	−0.2	1–0	Won	+1.38
West Brom v Southampton	Southampton	2.65	39.4%	+1.7	1–1	Lost	−1.00

Edge is in percentage points: our chance minus the chance the price implies. Units assume one unit per call at the best price on the card. Scores are from the match reports listed under sources. The first nine are Champions League, the other nine Championship.

Atlético Madrid 0–2 Bayern

We had Bayern at 42.4% in Madrid, the likeliest result on our card but less likely than the 2.05 price said, so this was a negative-edge call at −6.3 points. Bayern won 2–0. Lennart Karl got in behind the Atlético defence for the first and Konrad Laimer added the second, per the Guardian. It paid +1.05 units, and it is a good example of why a won call and a good call are different things: on our numbers, the price was slightly short.

Two days in one

Split the day by edge and it looks very different:

Calls	Number	Won	Expected wins	Units
Positive edge	7	2	3.3	−1.77
Zero or negative edge	11	10	4.9	+8.06
All	18	12	8.2	+6.29

Expected wins are the sum of our chances for each call. The negative-edge group won twice as often as we forecast, which is luck, not skill: the market thought those teams were even more likely to win than we did. The positive-edge group, the calls we actually think are good bets, came in 1.3 wins under forecast. One day of 18 calls cannot tell you which of those two results is the real signal. Why not is in how many bets before a record means anything.

What paid

• Portsmouth at 2.80 against Swansea. Our 41.5% against an implied 35.7%. Portsmouth won 3–1, two of them from Devlin, which stopped Swansea going top, per the Guardian. The day's best result at +1.80 units.
• Sheffield United at 2.43 at Preston. Our 47.2% against 41.2%. Sydie Peck scored a hat-trick in a 3–2 win, per Sky Sports.
• PSG at 1.67 at Villarreal. A negative-edge call that won 6–0.

What lost

• Roma at 2.94 at Manchester United. Our 43.9% against 34.0%, a +9.8 point edge. Roma scored through Matías Soulé and a Donyell Malen penalty, but two late Matheus Cunha goals won it 3–2 for United, per Yahoo Sports.
• Bodø/Glimt at 1.92 against Lille. Our 61.9%, also +9.8 points. It finished 0–0.
• QPR and Southampton. Both drew 1–1, against Burnley and at West Brom. Southampton were a small edge, QPR a +6.5 point one.

The two voided cup calls

Anaitasuna v Alavés (Alavés at 1.04) and CD Pamplona v Eibar (Eibar at 1.23) were on the record for Tuesday. Neither game was played: the Spanish federation postponed the Copa del Rey round after the death of Jesús de Miguel, per El Correo. Both calls settle as void. How the record handles that is in postponed match betting rules explained.

What this does not tell you

One day says almost nothing about the model. A +6.29 day built on short-priced calls is as uninformative as a −6.29 day would have been. Every call above was published before kick-off and stays on the record whether it won or lost. Our numbers are estimates, not promises.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.