Tuesday's 13 calls: seven won, three edges lost

BAI8 settled 13 calls from Tuesday 20 October: 7 won, 6 lost. At the quoted prices, one unit on each came to −2.03 units. On wins the day was exactly what our numbers said: our chances added up to 6.9 expected winners and seven came in. The money went the other way because three of our four positive-edge calls, the longer prices, all failed to win, while most of the winners were short favourites. Every call is below, misses included.

Every call, settled

Sorted from the widest positive edge to the most negative. Kick-off times were 16:45 to 19:00 UTC.

Fixture	Our pick	Our chance	Price seen	Edge	Score	Result
Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona	Barcelona	47.2%	2.60, Betfred (UK)	+8.8 pts	4–2	Lost
VfB Stuttgart v Atlético Madrid	Atlético	51.0%	2.35, Coolbet	+8.4 pts	1–1	Lost
Harrogate Town v Bury	Harrogate	60.2%	1.88, Betsson	+7.0 pts	3–1	Won
Worcester City v Chorley	Chorley	44.7%	2.55, Betsson	+5.5 pts	1–0	Lost
FC United of Manchester v Altrincham	Altrincham	48.1%	2.05, Betano (UK)	−0.7 pts	2–6	Won
Porto v PSV Eindhoven	Porto	52.8%	1.78, Unibet (NL)	−3.4 pts	0–1	Lost
Napoli v Bodø/Glimt	Napoli	53.8%	1.64, 1xBet	−7.1 pts	4–3	Won
Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha	Fenerbahçe	48.9%	1.70, Unibet (NL)	−9.9 pts	2–2	Lost
Tadley Calleva v Aldershot Town	Aldershot	53.3%	1.57, BetMGM	−10.4 pts	0–2	Won
Wolves v Portsmouth	Wolves	48.3%	1.56, GTbets	−15.8 pts	1–1	Lost
AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava	Roma	68.6%	1.18, BetOnline.ag	−16.2 pts	4–0	Won
Liverpool v Villarreal	Liverpool	42.6%	1.57, 1xBet	−21.1 pts	4–3	Won
Manchester City v AEK Athens	Man City	67.7%	1.08, Betfair	−24.9 pts	5–1	Won

Scores are from UEFA.com, Ahram Online, Sky Sports and BBC Sport.

The day against our own numbers

	Calls	Expected wins	Actual wins	Units
Positive edge	4	2.0	1	−2.12
Negative edge	9	4.8	6	+0.09
All	13	6.9	7	−2.03

Expected wins is our chances added up, and how we use it is explained in how we count expected wins on a results day. The positive-edge group came in one win short of expectation, which on four calls is a single result.

What went right and what did not

Barcelona was our widest call and lost a 4–2 thriller. Barcelona levelled twice, the second time through Lamine Yamal in the 79th minute, before Vitinha and Fabián Ruiz scored late for Paris, per UEFA.com. We had Barcelona at 47.2% against a price that implied about 38%.

Atlético drew with ten men. Julián Álvarez equalised a minute after half-time and Atlético finished with ten after Morten Hjulmand's red card. The full preview is in Stuttgart v Atlético prediction and odds.

The short favourites carried the day. Manchester City, Roma, Liverpool and Napoli all won, but at prices from 1.08 to 1.64. Those were negative-edge calls: we picked the likelier side while thinking the price was too short, and why we publish them anyway is in why BAI8 publishes negative-edge calls.

Porto and Wolves were the misses among the favourites. PSV won 1–0 in Porto, and Portsmouth equalised at Molineux in the 86th minute.

Where the record stands

189 settled calls, 117 won and 72 lost, +12.70 units on the public record. Tuesday took back about two units of the weekend's gain. Monday's quieter day is in Monday's nine calls, and every Champions League call so far is collected in our Champions League calls so far, settled.

What this does not tell you

Thirteen calls tell you very little about whether our edges are real. Four positive-edge calls is a sample in which one late goal changes the story, and the record only starts to mean something over hundreds of calls, as how many bets before a record means anything explains. The units assume one unit at the exact quoted price, which you may not have got.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.