Como won 9–1 at Lens: Wednesday's 19 settled calls

Wednesday 4 November finished almost exactly level on the record. Nineteen BAI8 calls settled, 13 won and 6 lost. At one unit on every call at the best price we saw, that is −0.04 units. Our own chances said about 10.6 wins were expected, so 13 is a little over forecast. But the shape of the day was poor: the three calls where we thought the price was wrong all lost, and one of them lost 9–1.

Thirteen of the calls were football, 12 in the Champions League and Championship plus Rennes v Olympiakos in the Europa League. Six were US basketball.

Every call, settled

Match	Our call	Price	Our chance	Edge	Score	Result	Units
Rennes v Olympiakos	Olympiakos	3.40	38.3%	+8.9	0–0	Lost	−1.00
AEK Athens v Real Madrid	Real Madrid	1.37	63.0%	−10.0	2–3	Won	+0.37
Fenerbahçe v Liverpool	Liverpool	1.69	45.8%	−13.4	3–2	Lost	−1.00
Cardiff v West Ham	West Ham	1.85	53.9%	−0.2	3–3	Lost	−1.00
Wrexham v Middlesbrough	Middlesbrough	2.25	48.0%	+3.6	2–0	Lost	−1.00
Bristol City v Wolves	Wolves	2.28	41.0%	−2.8	1–2	Won	+1.28
Dortmund v Real Betis	Dortmund	1.83	46.1%	−8.5	2–1	Won	+0.83
Lens v Como	Lens	3.10	38.7%	+6.5	1–9	Lost	−1.00
Porto v Napoli	Porto	2.30	41.6%	−1.9	4–1	Won	+1.30
PSV v Club Brugge	PSV	2.23	42.5%	−2.4	1–2	Lost	−1.00
RB Leipzig v Man City	Man City	1.63	46.6%	−14.8	2–3	Won	+0.63
Slavia Prague v Arsenal	Arsenal	1.35	54.9%	−19.2	1–2	Won	+0.35
Viking v Sabah	Viking	1.55	40.5%	−24.0	4–1	Won	+0.55
Butler v Fairleigh Dickinson	Butler	1.04	91.8%	−4.3	99–65	Won	+0.04
High Point v Maryland-Eastern Shore	High Point	1.01	76.6%	−22.4	63–49	Won	+0.01
Saint Joseph's v Longwood	Saint Joseph's	1.27	66.5%	−12.3	82–73	Won	+0.27
Wichita State v CSU Northridge	Wichita State	1.09	70.1%	−21.6	79–67	Won	+0.09
Celtics v Bucks	Celtics	1.22	68.2%	−13.8	109–102	Won	+0.22
Auburn v SE Louisiana	Auburn	1.02	89.2%	−8.8	92–59	Won	+0.02

Edge is in percentage points: our chance minus the chance the price implies. Units assume one unit per call at the best price on the card. Scores are from the match reports and results listings under sources.

Lens 1–9 Como

This is the one to own. We had Lens at 38.7% at home, against 32.3% implied by 3.10 at Betfair, so it was a positive-edge call at +6.5 points. Como won 9–1. Anastasios Douvikas scored a hat-trick and Cesc Fàbregas's side became the first away team to score nine in a Champions League match, per AP. Rúben Aguilar scored for Lens.

A single result like this does not, on its own, say the number was wrong. A 38.7% pick loses about six times in ten. But a 9–1 is not a narrow miss either, and it is fair to ask whether our view of Lens was too high. That question is answered by the next few hundred calls, not this one.

The day split by edge

Calls	Number	Won	Expected wins	Units
Positive edge	3	0	1.25	−3.00
Zero or negative edge	16	13	9.38	+2.96
All	19	13	10.63	−0.04

Expected wins are the sum of our chances for each call. The three calls we think are good bets were expected to produce a bit more than one win and produced none. The negative-edge calls, mostly short prices, won 3.6 more than forecast. Both are within ordinary luck for numbers this small, which is the point of how many bets before a record means anything.

What paid

• Porto at 2.30 against Napoli. A slightly negative edge, but the best return of the day at +1.30 units. Porto won 4–1, their first Champions League win of the season, per BBC Sport.
• Wolves at 2.28 at Bristol City. Substitute Sean Neave scored twice late for a 2–1 win, per the Guardian.
• Manchester City at 1.63 in Leipzig. Erling Haaland's 78th-minute goal won it 3–2, per the Guardian.
• Arsenal at 1.35 in Prague. Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyökeres scored before Slavia pulled one back, per Sky Sports.

What lost

• Liverpool at 1.69 in Istanbul. Trey Nyoni and Alexander Isak put Liverpool ahead twice, and Mason Greenwood, Archie Brown and Vedat Muriqi scored for Fenerbahçe in a 3–2 win under interim coach Dirk Kuyt, per BBC Sport.
• West Ham at 1.85 at Cardiff. Jack Moylan's first-half hat-trick put Cardiff 3–0 up, and West Ham came back to 3–3 in Scott Parker's first game, per RTÉ. A draw loses a match-result call.
• Middlesbrough at 2.25 at Wrexham. A +3.6 point edge; Wrexham won 2–0, per the Guardian.
• Olympiakos at 3.40 at Rennes. Our biggest edge of the day, +8.9 points. It finished 0–0, and Rennes stay unbeaten in the Europa League.

The record now holds 447 settled calls: 261 won, 184 lost and 2 void. See it in full on the results page.

What this does not tell you

One day says almost nothing about the model, and a level day hides a bad one for the calls that matter. Six of the 19 were basketball favourites at 1.27 or shorter, which move the win count far more than the units. Every call above was published before kick-off and stays on the record whether it won or lost. Our numbers are estimates, not promises.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.