Albania vs Finland prediction and team news

How it settled

Albania 2–0 Finland, full time on Thursday 12 November.

Our numbers made Albania the likeliest winners at 46.1% but passed on the 2.06 price, so the direction was right, and one 2–0 win cannot tell you whether that price was too short.

Our call before the match

Written on 11 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

BAI8 backs Albania to beat Finland on Thursday, but only at 46.1%: that is the likeliest outcome, not a probable one, and at the best price we found (2.06) it is a pass. The draw is 28.4% and Finland 25.5%. Albania lead Group C1 by two points and host a Finland side that beat them 2–1 in Helsinki in October.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Albania vs Finland page to see the full call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the numbers, the team news and the reasons.

Kick-off is Thursday 12 November at 20:45 in Albania (19:45 UTC, 21:45 in Finland) at the Air Albania Stadium in Tirana, matchday 5 of League C Group 1, per UEFA's match data. Table before the game, from UEFA:

Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Albania	4	3	0	1	8	3	9
Belarus	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
Finland	4	2	1	1	9	2	7
San Marino	4	0	0	4	1	16	0

Our prediction

Prices were quoted on 7 November at 22:01 UTC (Betfair's at 22:01:13 UTC). Our figures come from an assessment run on 7 November, so check the match page for anything newer.

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found	Where
Albania	46.1%	2.17	2.06	Bally Bet, 22:01 UTC
Draw	28.4%	3.53	3.30	Coral, 22:01 UTC
Finland	25.5%	3.92	4.30	Betfair, 22:01 UTC

Our verdict on the Albania pick is "Pass: neither majority likelihood nor positive value". It fails for three reasons. Albania do not clear the strict 50% line. Their chance does not beat the break-even of the price: 2.06 needs 48.5%, we say 46.1%, a gap of 2.4 points the wrong way. And our conservative range, 16.8% to 76.6%, crosses break-even, so even a favourable reading of the edge would not be robust.

For someone thinking of betting, that means one thing: on our numbers the Albania price is slightly short, and we would not back it. Confidence in the assessment is moderate (0.566), with sources agreeing at 0.867. The market is close to us: two bookmakers imply Albania 48.1%, draw 29.8%, Finland 22.1%. We are a little warmer on Finland and a little cooler on Albania than they are.

A worked check of the arithmetic: a price of 2.06 pays back 2.06 for every 1 staked, so it only breaks even if the team wins 1 time in 2.06, which is 48.5%. At 46.1%, a bettor taking 2.06 repeatedly would expect to lose about 5% of stakes over time (0.461 × 2.06 = 0.95). That is the whole case against it.

Why we back Albania

Albania are the stronger side on the table, at home, and they are the team that has to win the group rather than hope for it. That is the case for the pick. The case for a pass is that none of it is strong enough.

Form. Under Rolando Maran, who took over in May, Albania lost 0–1 at home to Israel and to Luxembourg in June, then beat Belarus 2–0 at home and San Marino 3–0 away, lost 1–2 to Finland away and beat San Marino 2–1 at home. Discount the wins: two were against San Marino, who have lost all four games and conceded 16. Finland lost 0–4 to Germany on 31 May and 1–2 to Hungary on 5 June, then beat San Marino 7–0, drew 0–0 with Belarus, beat Albania 2–1 and lost 0–1 to Belarus. Finland have the best goal difference in the group (+7 against Albania's +5), which the 7–0 against San Marino explains.

The last meeting. Albania lost in Helsinki, but not on the balance of play. Yle's match report says Leo Walta scored both Finland goals from free kicks and that Albania's goalkeeper was sent off, which Walta called the turning point. Our research has Rey Manaj scoring from a Kristjan Asllani corner before the dismissal, and Albania ahead on shots 14–11 and on target 5–3 despite playing with ten. That is a result you should remember with the red card attached. It also shows how Finland score: from set pieces, which our research flags as the thing to watch without assuming they repeat it.

Team news, Albania. RTSH reports the squad for Finland and Belarus includes a first call-up for Dinamo right-back Ysni Ismaili, who replaces Ivan Balliu. Thomas Strakosha is not included because he is not yet ready. Armando Broja is out, which RTSH calls expected, and Anis Mehmeti, Marash Kumbulla and Sabah Kerjota are absent with no reason given. Not every omission is an injury, and a named squad shows who is available, not who starts.

Team news, Finland. The Football Association's release names 25 players. Robert Ivanov and Fredrik Jensen return after a long break, Oliver Antman and Naatan Skyttä return after missing the first four Nations League matches, and Magdeburg's Luka Hyryläinen is called up for the first time. Yle reports Glen Kamara was not named: he missed the Belarus game after his club demanded his return, and the Finnish FA has informed FIFA. The release lists no injuries.

Stakes. Albania can go five clear of Finland with one game left, though they travel to Belarus three days later, a game RTSH says will be played in Hungary behind closed doors. Finland host San Marino on 15 November. By our research UEFA's 6 November rules send League C winners straight up to League B, while runners-up face a League B fourth-placed side, though some earlier Finnish bulletins described it differently, so check UEFA's own page. We found no confirmed plan to rotate on Thursday. For how a table like this reaches the price, read what a Nations League table does to the price.

Conditions. A forecast from 7 November showed about 16C at kick-off, with cloud and then rain near 21:00 local. It is a five-day outlook, not a measurement, and we have no verified information on wind or the pitch.

Discipline. Across the four group games, Albania won 27 corners and conceded 15 across those games, Finland won 24 and conceded 9. Albania's players have eight yellows and one red in the group, Finland's six yellows and none.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	13.3%
1–0	12.4%
0–0	10%
2–0	9.1%
2–1	8.9%

Over 1.5 goals is 69.1%, over 2.5 is 42.2% and over 3.5 is 21.5%. The most likely single score is a draw, and the next four scores are all low. This is a tight, low-scoring read. It matches a group where Albania have scored eight in four and Finland have conceded two.

What could make this wrong

The honest range around Albania is huge: 16.8% to 76.6%. For the draw it is 15% to 36.7% and for Finland 7.6% to 59.1%. Nothing here is precise.

The main risks are specific. A goalkeeper change, with Strakosha out, could move the number either way. Finland's set-piece quality showed up in October and does not need open play. Several Finland players are returning after long breaks, so their minutes are unknown. Club fixtures this weekend leave rest and workload differences unresolved. And a tight Nations League table may change how both coaches play more than any model can see.

The pick also covers only the Albania result. Our file holds no view on any other market, and we do not extend it to one.

Open the Albania vs Finland match page to see the call and the research behind it. If you are new to how we build these numbers, how to bet on football with a model explains the method, and the Italy vs France prediction covers another Thursday decider, this one in League A.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you the line-ups, which are not out, or whether anyone not named is fit. The call dates from 7 November and the prices from 22:01 UTC that night, so both may have moved. The weather is a forecast. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, but nothing here is a promise about the result: a 46.1% chance still loses more than half the time.