Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund prediction

We make Bodø/Glimt against Borussia Dortmund almost level: Dortmund 37.8%, Bodø/Glimt 36.2%, the draw 26.0%. The market does not see it that way. The best price we saw on Dortmund was 2.14 at 1xBet, against our fair price of 2.65. That is an 8.9 point negative edge: at that price the research says Dortmund are not worth backing. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Kick-off is 19:00 UTC tonight (20:00 in the UK, 21:00 in Norway) at the Aspmyra Stadion, north of the Arctic Circle, on artificial turf.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Bodø/Glimt	36.2%	2.76
Draw	26.0%	3.85
Borussia Dortmund	37.8%	2.65	2.14, 1xBet	−8.9 pts

The 2.14 was quoted at 01:27 UTC on 10 October. At that price the market implied 46.7% for Dortmund, nine points more than we give them. Our card was published on 10 October too, three days before Dortmund named their squad, so the news below came after our number. How to treat a card that old is in how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.

What moved the number

• The pitch and the trip. Dortmund's own preview says the squad would train at Aspmyra the night before to get used to the artificial turf. Bundesliga.com notes Bodø drew 2–2 in Dortmund in last season's competition and then went further in it than Dortmund did.
• Dortmund travel without Schlotterbeck. The club left him out for load management; Bundesliga.com says it is a precaution after recent ankle problems. Julian Ryerson and Carney Chukwuemeka are back in the 23. More on that in what Schlotterbeck's absence does to Dortmund.
• Bodø are missing a centre-back too. Sports Mole reports Odin Bjørtuft is suspended after his red card against Bayern, with Håkon Evjen, August Mikkelsen and Magnus Riisnæs injured.

What could make us wrong

Dortmund opened with a 3–2 win over Villarreal and sit second in the Bundesliga (OneFootball). If their quality shows early, the market's 46.7% will look closer than our 37.8%. A draw at 26.0% is also live in a game we make this even.

How it settled

Bodø/Glimt won 1–0 at Aspmyra, per AS. Fredrik Sjøvold scored early in the second half from Sondre Auklend's cross. Our pick was Dortmund at a −8.9 point edge, and the Desk record settles it as lost. We gave Bodø far more chance than the market did, mostly for the artificial pitch and Dortmund's missing centre-back, and the result fits that read, though a single goal decided it and one game cannot settle whether 36.2% was right.

What this does not tell you

It does not say Bodø/Glimt will win. We make Dortmund the likeliest result. It says 2.14 is short for a side we give under 38%. It is match result only, and confirmed line-ups land an hour before kick-off.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.