Champions League Wednesday: Betis and Bodø
Two Champions League Desk cards tonight, Betis v Porto and Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund. Both are near coin tosses on our numbers, and both quotes are short.
On this page
Tonight's Champions League Desk holds two cards, and they say the same thing in two different stadiums: the market is much surer of the favourite than we are. We make Real Betis v Porto and Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund close to level, and both best prices sit well under our fair price. Neither is a positive edge. All numbers are estimates, not promises.
Tonight's two cards
| Fixture (19:00 UTC) | Our pick | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis v Porto | Real Betis | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.27, 1xBet | −7.2 pts |
| Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund | Dortmund | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.14, 1xBet | −8.9 pts |
Full three-way chances:
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis v Porto | 36.8% | 29.0% | 34.2% |
| Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund | 36.2% | 26.0% | 37.8% |
The Betis quote is from 3 October and the Dortmund quote from 10 October. Old quotes can move a long way by kick-off, so treat the edge column as a snapshot. The full working for each game is in Real Betis v Porto prediction and odds and Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund prediction.
What ties the two together
Both favourites are carrying absences in defence. Porto are without Jan Bednarek through suspension, which leaves Betis's opponents thin at centre-back, and Dortmund left Nico Schlotterbeck at home for load management, per the club. We cover each in Porto's centre-back gap and the Betis price and what Schlotterbeck's absence does to Dortmund.
The draw is a large slice in both. We give it 29.0% in Seville and 26.0% in Bodø. A draw settles either pick as a loss.
Neither card says "back the other side". A negative edge means the price on our pick is too short. It does not turn Porto or Bodø into a bet, because we have not compared their prices.
Last night, for the record
Tuesday's seven Champions League calls went four from seven, with Sporting landing at +2.1 points and Napoli losing at +5.4. Every one is listed in Champions League Tuesday results: four from seven.
How it settled
One of two landed, per the Desk record.
| Fixture | Our pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis v Porto | Real Betis | 3–2 | Won |
| Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund | Dortmund | 1–0 | Lost |
Both cards carried negative edges, so neither result says the quote was fair. Betis came from behind to win with an 84th-minute Isco penalty, and Bodø beat Dortmund with one second-half goal. The detail is in each match page.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you who will win either game. It covers match result only, and it does not include the Championship games tonight, which are in Championship Wednesday: Portsmouth and Norwich.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Which Champions League calls does BAI8 have on Wednesday?
Two. Real Betis at home to Porto and Borussia Dortmund away at Bodø/Glimt, both at 19:00 UTC.
Does either Wednesday call have a positive edge?
No. Betis at 2.27 is 7.2 points under our fair price of 2.72, and Dortmund at 2.14 is 8.9 points under our 2.65.
Are these estimates or tips?
Estimates from the Desk research. BAI8 does not place bets and does not promise a result.