What Schlotterbeck's absence does to Dortmund
Dortmund left Nico Schlotterbeck at home for the trip to Bodø/Glimt. What losing a first-choice centre-back does to a price, and why our card was set before it.
Nico Schlotterbeck is not in Borussia Dortmund's squad for tonight's Champions League game at Bodø/Glimt. The club says it is load management; Bundesliga.com calls it a precaution after recent ankle problems. Losing a first-choice centre-back usually nudges a price rather than moving it a long way, and our card was set three days before the news. On our numbers, 2.14 on Dortmund was already short before he was left out.
What the news is
Dortmund flew 23 players to Norway on Tuesday, per the club's own site. Schlotterbeck stayed home. Julian Ryerson and Carney Chukwuemeka, both back from injury, travelled. Sports Mole had expected Schlotterbeck to start on the left of a back three alongside Waldemar Anton and Daniel Svensson. Fotmob's predicted line-up puts Joane Gadou in that back three instead.
What it does to a price
One defender rarely moves a match price a long way, because the market has usually heard the doubts before the squad list confirms them. Three things decide how much this one matters:
| Question | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Was it expected? | Sports Mole still listed him to start on 13 October, so some of the market may have been caught out. |
| Who replaces him? | A like-for-like starter costs less than a reshuffle. |
| Where is the game? | Aspmyra is artificial turf; Dortmund's own preview says the squad trained there the night before to get used to it. |
The same argument for a Premier League centre-back is in what Milenkovic's absence does to Forest.
Where our card sits
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt | 36.2% | 2.76 | ||
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.85 | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.14, 1xBet | −8.9 pts |
The quote and our chance both date from 10 October. If the news pushes Dortmund's price out from 2.14, the gap to our 2.65 narrows, but it would take a very large move to close nine points. The full preview is in Bodø/Glimt v Dortmund prediction.
What this does not tell you
We have not rerun the research since the squad was named, so we cannot tell you how far our own number would move. It also does not tell you whether Schlotterbeck's absence is short-term; the club has not said.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Is Nico Schlotterbeck playing against Bodø/Glimt?
No. Borussia Dortmund left him out of the 23-man squad for load management, according to the club, and Bundesliga.com reports it is a precaution after recent ankle problems.
Does Schlotterbeck's absence make Bodø/Glimt value?
Our card does not say so. We make Bodø/Glimt 36.2% and Dortmund 37.8%, and we have only compared the Dortmund price, which is short at 2.14.
Was the news in BAI8's number?
No. Our card was published on 10 October and Dortmund named the squad on 13 October, so the chances were set before the news.