Palace after Spurs: what it does to Hoffenheim

Crystal Palace's 2–0 home defeat to Tottenham on Saturday was about as one sided as a two-goal game gets, but it does not change our card for Thursday. That card, published before the weekend, gives Hoffenheim 36.8% at Selhurst Park, and the best price we saw, 3.9 at Unibet (NL), implies 25.6%. The weekend mostly confirms what the number already assumed: Palace are not the favourites that a home tie in Europe can make them look. The full card is in Crystal Palace v Hoffenheim prediction: Europa League.

What happened against Spurs

Per ESPN:

	Crystal Palace	Tottenham
Goals	0	2
Expected goals	0.14	3.26
Shots	2	34

Jean-Philippe Mateta was sent off after 13 minutes, upgraded to a red after a VAR review. Palace say it was their sixth league defeat in nine under Pierre Sage, and they are in the relegation places. Playing 77 minutes with ten men explains part of the shot count, not all of it.

What carries into Thursday

• Mateta should be available. A Premier League red card is a domestic ban; it does not apply in the Europa League.
• Sarr is not. The club says Ismaïla Sarr is out until after the November international break.
• Help is coming. Jørgen Strand Larsen and Jurrien Timber are working back to fitness, per the club, though neither is confirmed for Thursday.

Hoffenheim's own weekend

Hoffenheim lost at Werder Bremen on Saturday; our Werder call settled as a win on the record. Before the game the SZ (dpa) reported them without Conté, with Coufal a doubt and Gendrey out with a broken fibula. So both sides arrive off a defeat and short of players, which is roughly what a near-level card says.

What this does not tell you

One match with a red card after 13 minutes is a poor guide to the next one. Expected goals from a ten-man game say more about the red card than about Palace at full strength. For why our chance does not move after news, see when the starter is unknown: a gap in our method.

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