Dutching explained with a worked example
Dutching splits one stake across several selections so each pays the same if it wins. The formula, a worked football example and what it does to the margin.
On this page
Dutching means splitting one total stake across several selections, sized so that you receive the same amount whichever of them wins. You are not picking one outcome; you are backing a group of outcomes and equalising the return. It lowers the chance of losing and lowers the payout when you win. It does not create profit.
The formula
For each selection, the stake is:
stake = total stake × (1 ÷ odds) ÷ (sum of 1 ÷ odds for all your selections)
The shorter the price, the larger its share of the stake, because a short price needs more money to produce the same return.
A worked example
Suppose you want to back three runners at decimal odds 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 in an outright market, with 100 units in total. These prices are made up for the arithmetic.
| Selection | Odds | 1 ÷ odds | Stake | Return if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 4.0 | 0.250 | 40.54 | 162.16 |
| B | 5.0 | 0.200 | 32.43 | 162.16 |
| C | 6.0 | 0.167 | 27.03 | 162.16 |
The three 1 ÷ odds values add up to 0.617. Stake A = 100 × 0.250 ÷ 0.617 = 40.54, and so on. Whichever of A, B or C wins you get 162.16 back, a profit of 62.16. If something else wins you lose all 100.
So the group wins when its combined chance comes in. If your chances for the three are 25%, 20% and 17% (the same as the prices imply), the combined chance is 62%, and a 62% chance of winning 62.16 against a 38% chance of losing 100 has an expected value of about zero. That is the point: dutching changes the shape of the bet, not the edge.
When dutching helps and when it hurts
Dutching helps when you think the market has mispriced a group, not a single outcome. If you believe three of six runners will share nearly all the chance, backing the three at prices that beat their fair prices is a reasonable way to size it.
It hurts when you use it to feel safe. A bet with a lower chance of losing still costs the margin every time. What the margin costs is in what the bookmaker's margin really costs you.
Dutching a match result
You can dutch a football match too. Take made-up prices of 2.10 (home), 3.40 (draw) and 3.60 (away). Their 1 ÷ odds values are 0.476, 0.294 and 0.278, which sum to 1.048. Dutch all three with 100 units and each pays 100 ÷ 1.048 = 95.4 back. You are guaranteed to lose about 4.6 units whatever happens, because the margin is built into the prices.
That is why covering every outcome never works, and why the useful form of dutching is partial: backing some of the outcomes, each at a price above its fair price. For a single market that backs two outcomes in one bet, see double chance betting explained.
Practical limits
- Odds move while you place the bets, which breaks the equal return.
- Each leg can have a different maximum stake.
- Rounding stakes to pennies changes returns by a little.
- Ties and void selections change the maths. Check the rules.
What this does not tell you
BAI8 does not use dutching and prices single outcomes only. The prices and chances above are made-up arithmetic to show the method, not research outputs. Dutching never makes a bad price good.
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Common questions
What is dutching in betting?
Splitting one total stake across two or more selections in the same market, sized so that you get the same return whichever one wins.
What is the dutching formula?
Stake on each selection = total stake × (1 ÷ its odds) ÷ the sum of (1 ÷ odds) across all your selections. The smaller the price, the larger the stake.
Is dutching guaranteed profit?
No. It only guarantees the same return if one of your selections wins. If none of them wins you lose the whole stake.
Can I dutch every outcome of a match?
Yes, but you lose money for sure. Because bookmaker prices include a margin, 1 ÷ odds adds up to more than 1, so covering all three outcomes returns less than you staked.
Does BAI8 use dutching?
No. BAI8 prices single outcomes and shows the edge on each. Dutching is a staking method, and the arithmetic below is a worked example, not a BAI8 price.