Fiorentina's defence and the Sassuolo price
Fiorentina go to Sassuolo without Pongračić and Parisi, with Ranieri a doubt. Why that sits behind our 45.7% on Sassuolo, and why the price still says 2.95.
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Fiorentina travel to Sassuolo on Monday with two first-choice defenders out and a third in doubt. That is one of the main reasons we give Sassuolo 45.7% to win while the best price we saw, 2.95 at Unibet (SE), implies only 33.9%. The gap is an 11.8 point edge on our numbers. The full card is in Sassuolo v Fiorentina prediction: Serie A, 2 November.
Who is missing at the back
Per FotMob and Lineups Today:
| Player | Position | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Marin Pongračić | Centre-back | Out, thigh, expected back mid-November |
| Fabiano Parisi | Left-back or wing-back | Out, knee ligament, expected back early December |
| Luca Ranieri | Centre-back | Doubt, trying to recover |
| Arthur Atta | Midfield | Out |
Sassuolo News also reports Riccardo Sottil as a doubt. If Ranieri does not make it, Fiorentina lose most of the left side of their defence at once.
How that sits in our number
Our card gives Fiorentina 28.4%, a fair price of 3.53, and the draw 26.0%. We do not publish how much any single absence moved the number, and we will not pretend to. What we can say is this. The 2.95 on Sassuolo implies 33.9%, which leaves about two thirds for the draw or an away win before the bookmaker's margin. For a side near the bottom of the table, per Calciomercato, missing two starting defenders away from home, we think that is too generous.
The case against
Sassuolo conceded six at Lazio in midweek, after the Desk priced this card on 26 October. Kristian Thorstvedt was sent off there and is suspended, and Fedde Leysen, Ismaël Koné and Daniel Boloca are out. The chance on the card does not move after publishing, so the price may simply know something our number does not. Fiorentina also scored twice against Atalanta in their last league game.
What this does not tell you
Team news can change before Monday, and predicted line-ups are not confirmed ones. A missing defender does not decide a match on its own. For how research and price combine on a card, read how BAI8 prices a fixture.
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Common questions
Which Fiorentina defenders miss the Sassuolo game?
Per FotMob and Lineups Today, Marin Pongračić (thigh) and Fabiano Parisi (knee) are out, and Luca Ranieri is trying to recover in time. Arthur Atta is also out.
How much do BAI8 give Fiorentina at Sassuolo?
28.4%, a fair price of 3.53. We give Sassuolo 45.7% and the draw 26.0%.
Do Sassuolo's own absences cancel this out?
Partly. Sassuolo lost 6-2 at Lazio after our card was priced, Kristian Thorstvedt is suspended, and Fedde Leysen, Ismaël Koné and Daniel Boloca are out. That is the strongest case against our number.