Sassuolo v Fiorentina prediction: Serie A, 2 November

How it settled

Fiorentina won 4–2 at the MAPEI Stadium on 2 November, per ESPN. Armand Laurienté put Sassuolo ahead after 25 minutes, but Mateo Pellegrino levelled in first-half stoppage time and Alieu Njie made it 2–1 five minutes after the break. Laurienté equalised again on 65 minutes, then Franco Mastantuono and Víctor Valdepeñas scored late for Fiorentina. Sassuolo had 58% of the ball but only 2 shots on target to Fiorentina's 6, per ESPN.

Our pick was Sassuolo to win, so the call lost. The Desk record settles it at 2.6 on Unibet (SE), the price on the card when it was published on 26 October, against our 45.7%: a 7.2 point edge. That is smaller than the 11.8 points we saw at 2.95 on match day, because the record uses the card's own price. The research read Fiorentina's missing defenders right but missed the bigger problem: Sassuolo's own defence, six goals down at Lazio in midweek, conceded four more.

Our pick	Our chance	Fair price	Price on the card	Edge	Result
Sassuolo	45.7%	2.19	2.6, Unibet (SE)	+7.2 pts	Lost

Our call before the match

Written on 1 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

We back Sassuolo at home to Fiorentina on Monday night. We give them 45.7% to win, a fair price of 2.19, and the best price we saw was 2.95 at Unibet (SE). That is an 11.8 point positive edge. The market has this closer to a coin flip with the visitors slightly preferred; we think Fiorentina's defensive absences tilt it the other way. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Kick-off is 17:30 UTC on Monday 2 November (18:30 in Italy and Paris) at the MAPEI Stadium in Reggio Emilia.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Sassuolo	45.7%	2.19	2.95, Unibet (SE)	+11.8 pts
Draw	26.0%	3.85
Fiorentina	28.4%	3.53

The Desk published this card at 22:07 UTC on 26 October, and the 2.95 was first quoted at 04:50 UTC on 1 November and was still the best price at 04:48 UTC on 2 November. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance: 1 / 0.457 is about 2.19. The 2.95 implies 33.9%, so the edge is 45.7% minus 33.9%, or 11.8 points. The three chances add up to 100%.

What the research weighs

• Fiorentina's back line is thin. Marin Pongračić is out with a thigh injury, Fabiano Parisi with a knee injury, and Luca Ranieri is a doubt, per FotMob and Lineups Today. That leaves them short on the left of defence. We go into it in Fiorentina's defence and the Sassuolo price.
• Fiorentina are near the bottom. They came into the round in the lower reaches of the table after a 2–2 draw with Atalanta, per Calciomercato.
• Sassuolo can score. Even through a poor run they have 14 league goals, per Sassuolo News, and Calciomercato expects the usual front three of Berardi, Esposito and Laurienté.

Match-day line-ups

Sky Sport's probable line-ups on match day:

• Sassuolo (4-3-3): Turati; Van der Brempt, Idzes, Caleta-Car, Doig; Adzic, Matic, Bakola; Berardi, Esposito, Laurienté.
• Fiorentina (4-3-2-1): de Gea; Jimenez, Dragusin, Viery, João Mário; Ndour, Fagioli, Brescianini; Mastantuono, Njie, Pellegrino.

Idzes is expected back in the Sassuolo defence. Sky lists Fagioli and Pellegrino as doubts, with Oulai and Beto ready to come in. Ranieri is not in Fiorentina's probable back four. Our chance was set on 26 October and does not change for these.

What could make us wrong

Sassuolo were beaten 6–2 at Lazio in midweek, and that came after the Desk priced this card on 26 October. Kristian Thorstvedt was sent off in that game and is suspended, and Fedde Leysen, Ismaël Koné and Daniel Boloca are out. Jay Idzes may be back in defence, which helps, but a side that has just conceded six is not a comfortable favourite. Fiorentina also showed more in attack against Atalanta. A 28.4% away chance is not small. For why the chance on a card does not move when news lands after it is published, see when the starter is unknown: a gap in our method.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only, not goals or handicaps. Line-ups are probable, not confirmed until an hour before kick-off, and the Desk chance was set before the Lazio defeat. If you want the reasoning behind an edge like this, read what a positive edge actually means.

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