Football predictions this weekend: our three calls

We have three public football calls for this weekend, and all three are away sides. FC Halifax Town at Cheltenham in the FA Cup, PEC Zwolle at Willem II in the Eredivisie, and Erzurumspor at Rizespor in the Süper Lig. Each has a positive edge at this morning's prices, between 9.8 and 12.8 points. Two of the three prices have shortened since we published, which is worth knowing before you read the edges as fixed.

The three calls at a glance

Kick-off (UTC)	Match	Our call	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Fri 6 Nov, 19:00	Willem II v PEC Zwolle	Zwolle	51.8%	1.93	2.38, Unibet (NL)	+9.8 pts
Sat 7 Nov, 15:00	Cheltenham v FC Halifax	Halifax	39.9%	2.51	3.70, Betsson	+12.8 pts
Sun 8 Nov, 10:30	Rizespor v Erzurumspor	Erzurumspor	37.9%	2.64	3.90, Tipico	+12.3 pts

Prices were quoted between 03:07 and 04:28 UTC on 5 November. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance, and the edge is our chance minus the chance the price implies. All three calls are on the 90-minute result.

All three outcomes, side by side

Match	Home	Draw	Away
Willem II v Zwolle	24.5%	23.7%	51.8%
Cheltenham v Halifax	33.7%	26.4%	39.9%
Rizespor v Erzurumspor	31.9%	30.2%	37.9%

Only Zwolle is a favourite on our numbers. Halifax and Erzurumspor are our likeliest result in their games, but each still loses or draws about six times in ten. That is normal for a call priced at 3.70 or 3.90.

How the prices have moved

Call	Best price, 2–3 Nov	Best price, 5 Nov	Edge then	Edge now
Halifax	4.4, Betsson	3.70, Betsson	+17.1 pts	+12.8 pts
Zwolle	2.45, Unibet (NL)	2.38, Unibet (NL)	+11.0 pts	+9.8 pts
Erzurumspor	3.90, Tipico	3.90, Tipico	+12.3 pts	+12.3 pts

When a price shortens towards our fair price, the market is moving our way. That is mildly reassuring, but it also means the edge on offer is smaller than it was. The 4.4 on Halifax is gone. Our own chances stay where they were published; only the price beside them refreshes.

Willem II v PEC Zwolle

Willem II are bottom with two points from 11 games and lost 7–0 at PSV on 31 October in Jurgen Streppel's first game back as coach. Zwolle beat ADO Den Haag 1–0 on 1 November. Our 51.8% was set before the 7–0 and before Streppel's return. A new coach's first home game is the main risk. Full detail in the Willem II v PEC Zwolle prediction, and every Eredivisie fixture we price is on the Eredivisie predictions page.

Cheltenham v FC Halifax

A National League side at a League Two one in the first round. Halifax beat Yeovil 2–0 on 31 October, and Cheltenham lost 3–1 at Tranmere the same day. A 12.8 point edge on a fifth-tier side is wide, and our data on National League clubs is thinner than on league sides. A draw goes to extra time and penalties, but our call settles on 90 minutes. Read the Cheltenham v Halifax prediction and the FA Cup predictions page.

Rizespor v Erzurumspor

Neither side won last weekend. The news since our preview is Rizespor's: centre-back Modibo Sagnan is suspended and Borrelli is unlikely to play, per Rizedeyiz. That has not changed our number, for the reasons in Rizespor without Sagnan: the Erzurumspor price. Our draw chance of 30.2% is high, and it is the main way this call loses. More on the Süper Lig predictions page.

What this does not tell you

It is three bets, and three bets settle nothing. Expected wins from these three, on our own chances, are about 1.3, so the likeliest single weekend is one win and two losses even if every number is right. The list is the public calls only, and it can grow before Saturday. Line-ups are not in yet. For why positive edges only pay over many bets, read what a positive edge actually means.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.