Predictions
Our number on a match before it is played, next to the price the bookmaker is charging.
5 articles
Predictions
5MMA2 minUFC main card, where the price looks wrongFight markets price narrative more than any other sport, because there is no league table to argue with and the sample per fighter is tiny.Tennis1 minATP Masters first round outsidersThe first round of a Masters draw is where ranking is least informative, and where the market leans on it hardest. Three prices we think are wrong.American football1 minNFL week one spreads we disagree withOpening week is the worst calibrated week of the season, because every model is running on last year's teams and this year's rosters.Football2 minPremier League weekend, three widest gapsTen fixtures assessed, three where our number and the market disagree by more than the margin explains. The reasoning is published with each one.Football2 minHow to bet on football with a modelA model gives you a number. Turning that into a decision needs three more things, and most people who lose money have the first and none of the rest.