7 November results: the widest edges lost

Fourteen of our 32 positive-edge calls on Saturday 7 November won and 18 lost. Add up our own chances on those 32 and you get about 14.9 expected wins, so the day landed almost exactly on the numbers. At level stakes the group made about +1.5 units. The uncomfortable part: five of the six widest edges lost, including four of our public cards.

Every positive-edge call on 7 November

Match	Our call	Our chance	Price	Edge	Result
Gimnasia Mendoza v Independiente Rivadavia	Gimnasia Mendoza	48.5%	3.23, Kalshi	+17.5 pts	Lost
Pau FC v Nantes	Pau FC	48.5%	3.20, Betfair	+17.2 pts	Lost
Cheltenham Town v FC Halifax Town	FC Halifax Town	39.9%	4.40, Betsson	+17.1 pts	Lost
Volos FC v AE Kifisia FC	Draw	44.6%	3.50, Coolbet	+16.0 pts	Lost
Grasshopper Zürich v FC Lausanne-Sport	Grasshopper Zürich	51.8%	2.52, Betfair	+12.1 pts	Lost
Crewe Alexandra v AFC Wimbledon	Crewe Alexandra	47.2%	2.85, DraftKings	+12.1 pts	Won
Austria Lustenau v Grazer AK	Austria Lustenau	46.5%	2.86, Matchbook	+11.6 pts	Won
Accrington Stanley v Wycombe Wanderers	Accrington Stanley	37.3%	3.80, BetMGM	+11.0 pts	Lost
Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets FC	Perth Glory	49.8%	2.56, Betfair	+10.7 pts	Won
Yokohama F Marinos v Fagiano Okayama	Yokohama F Marinos	50.3%	2.48, Smarkets	+10.0 pts	Lost
St Johnstone v Dundee FC	Dundee FC	41.8%	3.00, 1xBet	+8.5 pts	Lost
FC Tokyo v Kashima Antlers	FC Tokyo	56.5%	2.08, Kalshi	+8.4 pts	Won
ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam	Sparta Rotterdam	41.9%	2.90, Unibet (NL)	+7.4 pts	Lost
Boreham Wood FC v Wigan Athletic	Boreham Wood FC	49.1%	2.38, BetMGM	+7.1 pts	Lost
Málaga v Real Racing Club de Santander	Real Racing Club de Santander	40.7%	2.92, 1xBet	+6.4 pts	Won
Degerfors IF v GAIS	GAIS	48.5%	2.36, Coolbet	+6.1 pts	Won
Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale	Kashiwa Reysol	49.4%	2.24, Matchbook	+4.7 pts	Won
RAAL La Louvière v Cercle Brugge KSV	RAAL La Louvière	40.5%	2.78, Kalshi	+4.5 pts	Lost
Peterborough United v Reading	Reading	45.9%	2.38, Pinnacle	+3.9 pts	Won
Talleres v Estudiantes	Talleres	39.2%	2.80, Betfair	+3.5 pts	Lost
Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles	Go Ahead Eagles	43.4%	2.50, Unibet (NL)	+3.4 pts	Won
Örgryte IS v Västerås SK	Västerås SK	46.3%	2.32, Unibet (SE)	+3.2 pts	Lost
Fortuna Sittard v SC Telstar	Fortuna Sittard	50.3%	2.12, Nordic Bet	+3.1 pts	Lost
Bristol City v Norwich City	Norwich City	38.7%	2.80, LeoVegas (SE)	+2.9 pts	Won
Cardiff City v Burnley	Cardiff City	45.4%	2.30, PointsBet (AU)	+1.9 pts	Won
Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon Town	Milton Keynes Dons	63.6%	1.61, BetMGM	+1.5 pts	Won
Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur	Leeds United	40.0%	2.58, Betfair	+1.2 pts	Won
Bromley FC v Rotherham United	Bromley FC	41.9%	2.45, PointsBet (AU)	+1.1 pts	Lost
Oxford United v Stevenage	Oxford United	45.4%	2.25, PointsBet (AU)	+0.9 pts	Lost
FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern Munich	Bayern Munich	68.4%	1.48, 1xBet	+0.8 pts	Won
Fulham v Newcastle United	Fulham	43.8%	2.32, Betfair	+0.7 pts	Lost
Wrexham AFC v Wolverhampton Wanderers	Wolverhampton Wanderers	42.5%	2.38, LeoVegas (SE)	+0.5 pts	Lost

Prices, chances and results are from the Desk record as settled at 00:12 UTC on 8 November. Edge is our chance minus the chance the price implied. Where a price on the record differs from the one in a preview, the record is the later quote.

Where it went wrong: the widest edges

The six widest gaps were all between +12 and +18 points. Our chances on those six added up to about 2.8 expected wins. One came in: Crewe. Gimnasia Mendoza conceded in the fifth minute of stoppage time, Pau finished with nine men, Halifax lost at Cheltenham, Volos lost 1–3 when we had the draw, and Grasshopper lost at home to Lausanne.

Across the ten widest the count is three wins (Crewe, Lustenau and Perth Glory) against about 4.6 expected. That is below the numbers, but it is ten games. A gap of 1.6 wins on ten bets is ordinary noise. We have asked the bigger question, whether wide edges have earned their width across the whole record, in do bigger edges win more often? Our 578 calls.

Each public miss has its own settle note on the preview: Gimnasia vs Rivadavia, Pau vs Nantes, Cheltenham v Halifax and Volos vs AE Kifisia. The two wins are on Crewe vs Wimbledon and Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK.

Where it went right: the narrow edges

The 14 calls under +4 points went 7 from 14 against about 6.6 expected, and made about +1.7 units, carried by Leeds over Tottenham, Cardiff over Burnley, Norwich at Bristol City and Bayern at Mainz. The middle band (+4 to +10 points) went 4 from 9 for about +0.6 units. The ten widest lost about 1.7 units. So the day's profit came from the narrow edges, the opposite of what the headline numbers suggest.

The rest of 7 November

Saturday put 78 fixtures on the settled record. The 46 negative-edge calls (where the price was shorter than our fair price) won 27 times against about 23.2 expected. Counting everything, the day went 41 won and 37 lost and cost about 2.4 units at level stakes, because the negative-edge winners were mostly short prices. How we count expected wins is explained in how we count expected wins on a results day.

As of this morning the all-time record sits at 578 settled, 326 won, 246 lost, 6 returned, about +23.9 units. Yesterday morning it was +28.3.

What this does not tell you

It does not say which of the losing calls were bad research and which were bad luck; one day cannot separate them. It does not reprice anything after the fact. Samsunspor v Konyaspor, a public preview from Saturday, is not on the record yet and is not counted here.