8 November results: only the narrow edges paid

Nine of our 24 positive-edge calls on Sunday 8 November won and 15 lost. Add up our own chances on those 24 and you get about 11.1 expected wins, so the day landed about two wins short. At level stakes the group lost about 2.4 units. Two public cards that kicked off on Sunday, Rizespor v Erzurumspor and Union La Calera v Huachipato, are not on the record yet and are not counted here.

Every settled positive-edge call on 8 November

Match	Our call	Our chance	Price	Edge	Result
JEF United Chiba v Mito HollyHock	JEF United Chiba	67.2%	2.05, BetMGM	+18.4 pts	Won
FC St Gallen v FC Lugano	FC Lugano	49.6%	2.84, Pinnacle	+14.4 pts	Lost
Kalmar FF v IK Sirius	IK Sirius	56.0%	2.30, Betfair	+12.5 pts	Lost
WSG Tirol v Austria Wien	WSG Tirol	46.3%	2.76, Betfair	+10.0 pts	Lost
Brest v Lyon	Brest	41.3%	3.04, 1xBet	+8.4 pts	Won
Hartberg v Rheindorf Altach	Hartberg	47.8%	2.48, Casumo	+7.5 pts	Won
IF Brommapojkarna v Mjällby AIF	IF Brommapojkarna	46.7%	2.55, Unibet (SE)	+7.5 pts	Lost
Carrarese v Sampdoria	Carrarese	44.7%	2.58, Betfair	+5.9 pts	Lost
1. FC Heidenheim v Hannover 96	1. FC Heidenheim	53.0%	2.11, Codere (IT)	+5.6 pts	Lost
FC Twente Enschede v Ajax	FC Twente Enschede	45.6%	2.45, Unibet (NL)	+4.8 pts	Lost
Vissel Kobe v Urawa Red Diamonds	Vissel Kobe	48.5%	2.28, Betfair	+4.6 pts	Lost
Sunderland v Chelsea	Chelsea	51.6%	2.10, Betfair	+4.0 pts	Lost
FC Machida Zelvia v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	FC Machida Zelvia	36.6%	3.03, Kalshi	+3.6 pts	Lost
Kryliya Sovetov v Gazovik Orenburg	Gazovik Orenburg	36.0%	2.98, Pinnacle	+2.4 pts	Lost
Fredrikstad FK v SK Brann	SK Brann	41.9%	2.52, Betfair	+2.2 pts	Lost
IFK Goteborg v Malmo FF	Malmo FF	37.7%	2.81, GTbets	+2.1 pts	Lost
Shandong Luneng Taishan FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC	Shandong Luneng Taishan FC	42.9%	2.44, Kalshi	+1.9 pts	Won
Brighton and Hove Albion v Brentford	Brighton and Hove Albion	51.9%	2.00, Betfair	+1.9 pts	Won
Le Havre v Lorient	Lorient	39.6%	2.63, LeoVegas (SE)	+1.6 pts	Won
Instituto de Córdoba v Newells Old Boys	Instituto de Córdoba	52.6%	1.96, Ladbrokes	+1.6 pts	Lost
Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory	Melbourne Victory	42.7%	2.42, GTbets	+1.4 pts	Lost
Macarthur FC v Brisbane Roar	Brisbane Roar	37.1%	2.78, Betfair	+1.1 pts	Won
Angers v Nice	Nice	47.6%	2.14, LeoVegas (SE)	+0.8 pts	Won
Zhejiang v Henan FC	Zhejiang	50.1%	2.00, betPARX	+0.1 pts	Won

Prices, chances and results are from the Desk record as settled by 00:33 UTC on 9 November. Edge is our chance minus the chance the price implied. Where a price on the record differs from the one in a preview, the record is the later quote.

The public cards

JEF United Chiba won at home to Mito, the widest edge of the day at +18.4 points. The other two public cards that are on the record lost. Lugano lost 0–5 at St Gallen after a first-half red card, and Sirius lost 0–1 at Kalmar, a match they dominated on the ball. Each has its own settle note: St Gallen vs Lugano and Kalmar vs Sirius. The full Sunday card is in Sunday's six public Desk calls.

Where it went wrong, and where it went right

The ten widest edges went 3 from 10 against about 5.0 expected, and lost about 2.4 units. The four edges of +10 points or more went 1 from 4. The seven mid-sized edges (+4 to +10) went 2 from 7 against about 3.3 expected. The 13 narrow edges under +4 points went 6 from 13 against 5.7 expected, and made about +1.0 unit. The same shape showed on Saturday, when five of the six widest edges lost: 7 November results. Whether wide edges deserve their width over the whole record is covered in do bigger edges win more often? Our 578 calls.

The rest of 8 November

Sunday's settled record has 65 fixtures. The 41 negative-edge calls won 21 times against about 19.5 expected. Counting everything, the day went 30 won and 35 lost and cost about 7.1 units at level stakes. How we count expected wins is explained in how we count expected wins on a results day.

As of this morning the all-time record sits at 641 settled, 356 won, 279 lost, 6 returned, about +18.8 units.

What this does not tell you

It does not say which of the losing calls were bad research and which were bad luck; one day cannot separate them. It does not reprice anything after the fact. Calls still missing from the record are not counted and may change the totals when they are added.