Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea: our call and how it settled
Liverpool drew 1–1 with Chelsea and went through 6–5 on penalties, but our Liverpool call at a 12.5 point edge lost. Why, and what we had.
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How it settled
Liverpool and Chelsea drew 1–1 after 90 minutes at Anfield on 28 October, and Liverpool went through 6–5 on penalties after Wesley Fofana missed Chelsea's eighth kick, per the Guardian. Liverpool are in the quarter-finals, and they play Bournemouth there.
Our pick was Liverpool to win at 2.65, a 12.5 point edge, and the Desk record settles it as lost. A match-result bet is settled on the score after 90 minutes, so a shootout win counts as a draw. We explain the rule in to qualify betting explained. The other four Carabao Cup calls of the round are in Carabao Cup results: two from six calls.
Our call before the match
Written on 25 Oct 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.
We favour Liverpool at home to Chelsea in the Carabao Cup fourth round. We give Liverpool 50.3% to win in 90 minutes, and the best price we saw was 2.65 at PointsBet (AU), against our fair price of 1.99. That is a 12.5 point positive edge. At 2.65 the market gives Liverpool about 38%. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 20:00 UTC on Wednesday 28 October (8pm in the UK) at Anfield.
Our numbers
| Outcome (90 minutes) | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 50.3% | 1.99 | 2.65, PointsBet (AU) | +12.5 pts |
| Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | ||
| Chelsea | 24.1% | 4.14 |
The card was published at 03:54 UTC on 25 October, and the 2.65 was quoted at 03:47 UTC the same morning, more than three days before kick-off. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance: 1 / 0.503 is about 1.99. These are match result numbers. In a cup tie a draw goes to extra time and penalties, which is a different market; the difference is in to qualify betting explained.
What the research weighs
- Chelsea's goalkeeper is out. Emiliano Martínez had surgery on a fractured jaw and will miss a few weeks, per Chelsea. Mike Penders started against Tottenham.
- Chelsea's striker is a question. João Pedro missed the Tottenham game after feeling something in training, and Chelsea were waiting on tests, per the club.
- Chelsea arrive off a bad weekend. They lost 0–2 at home to Tottenham on Saturday, and Cole Palmer was sent off for two bookings, per BBC Sport.
- Liverpool are short too. Frimpong, Ekitike, Leoni and Bradley are out and Szoboszlai missed the weekend, per Liverpool FC. Ryan Gravenberch is back from suspension.
Injuries
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremie Frimpong | Liverpool | Out, muscle, unlikely before November break | Liverpool FC |
| Hugo Ekitike | Liverpool | Out, Achilles, long-term | Liverpool FC |
| Giovanni Leoni | Liverpool | Out, ACL | Liverpool FC |
| Conor Bradley | Liverpool | Out, knee | Liverpool FC |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | Liverpool | Doubt, hamstring | Liverpool FC |
| Emiliano Martínez (GK) | Chelsea | Out, fractured jaw | Chelsea FC |
| Reece James | Chelsea | Out, knee surgery | Chelsea FC |
| João Pedro | Chelsea | Being assessed | Chelsea FC |
What Reece James's absence did to an earlier Chelsea price is in what Reece James's surgery does to Chelsea.
What could make us wrong
Both clubs play on Sunday or Saturday and again on Wednesday, and both managers may change a lot of players for a cup game. A heavily rotated Liverpool side is a different team from the one our research looked at. That risk is the subject of cup rotation: what our research can miss. Chelsea also have the squad depth to absorb absences better than most.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Liverpool will win; on our numbers they fail to win in 90 minutes about half the time. It does not price who goes through. The 2.65 is a timestamp, and the price will move once both weekend games are played and the team news is in.
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Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for Liverpool v Chelsea?
Liverpool. We give Liverpool 50.3%, the draw 25.6% and Chelsea 24.1%, over 90 minutes.
Are Liverpool good value against Chelsea?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw. The best quote was 2.65 at PointsBet (AU) against our fair 1.99, a 12.5 point edge. It is an estimate, not a promise.
When is Liverpool v Chelsea in the Carabao Cup?
Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC (8pm in the UK), at Anfield, in the fourth round.
Who is injured for Liverpool v Chelsea?
Liverpool are without Jeremie Frimpong, Hugo Ekitike, Giovanni Leoni and Conor Bradley, with Dominik Szoboszlai a doubt. Chelsea are without Emiliano Martínez and Reece James, and João Pedro is being assessed.
Sources
- The Guardian, Liverpool v Chelsea livetheguardian.com
- BAI8 Desk record, 29 October 2026bai8.app
- BAI8 Desk preview, 25 October 2026bai8.app
- Liverpool FC, injury list and availabilityliverpoolfc.com
- Liverpool FC, updates on Frimpong and Szoboszlailiverpoolfc.com
- Chelsea FC, injury update on Emiliano Martínezchelseafc.com
- Chelsea FC, Alonso explains João Pedro absencechelseafc.com
- BBC Sport, Chelsea 0-2 Tottenhambbc.com