To qualify betting explained: extra time and pens
In a cup tie, the match result settles after 90 minutes; to qualify includes extra time and penalties. How the two prices differ, with a real Desk example.
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A to qualify bet wins if your team goes through, by any route: in 90 minutes, in extra time or on penalties. A match result bet on the same cup tie is settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and a level score at that point is a draw. That one difference explains why the two prices differ, and why mixing them up is one of the easiest ways to lose a bet you thought you had won.
The two markets side by side
| Match result (90 minutes) | To qualify | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcomes | Home, draw, away | Home or away |
| Extra time counts | No | Yes |
| Penalties count | No | Yes |
| Win if level at 90 and your team goes through | No, the draw wins | Yes |
In the Carabao Cup, ties that are level after 90 minutes go straight to penalties, with no extra time. In other cups, such as later rounds of European competitions, there is extra time first. Check the competition's rules before you read either price.
A real example: Liverpool v Chelsea
Our Desk card for the fourth-round tie at Anfield on 28 October prices the 90 minutes only:
| Outcome (90 minutes) | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 50.3% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 |
| Chelsea | 24.1% | 4.14 |
Our card has no to qualify number, so here is the arithmetic, clearly as an illustration and not our figure. If you think a drawn tie is a coin toss on penalties, Liverpool qualify about 50.3% + 25.6% ÷ 2 = 63.1% of the time, which is a fair price near 1.58. If you think they win the shoot-out six times in ten, it becomes 50.3% + 15.4% = 65.7%, a fair price near 1.52. The draw share is what moves the answer, which is why what the draw is worth in football odds matters for cup betting.
Why the edge can look different
A positive edge on the 90-minute price does not carry over to the qualify price. The qualify market has two outcomes, not three, and its margin and its favourite are priced differently. The same point applies to any two-way versus three-way comparison, covered in two-way vs three-way: why the edge looks different. A close cousin of the qualify bet is draw no bet, which returns your stake on a draw instead of paying it out; see draw no bet explained with a real price.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you who wins a shoot-out; nobody prices penalties well, and our research does not try. It does not say which market is better value on a given night. That depends on the prices on offer, and you have to turn both into chances to compare them.
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Common questions
What does to qualify mean in betting?
It is a bet on which team goes through to the next round, however they do it: in 90 minutes, in extra time or on penalties. The match result market settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
Does a match result bet include extra time?
No. A match result bet on a cup tie is settled on the score after 90 minutes. If it is level, the draw wins, even if one team then goes through.
Why is the to qualify price shorter than the win price?
Because the qualify bet wins in more ways. A team that would have drawn after 90 minutes can still go through, so the bookmaker pays less for it.
How do I compare the two prices?
Turn each price into a chance with 1 divided by the price, then ask how often you think the stronger side wins after a draw. The worked example in this piece shows the arithmetic.