Carabao Cup results: two from six calls
Two of our six Carabao Cup fourth-round calls won, Bournemouth and Sunderland. All six results, the prices, and why two shootout wins count as losses.
On this page
Two of our six Carabao Cup fourth-round calls won. Bournemouth beat Aston Villa 3–0 and Sunderland beat Brentford 3–2. Liverpool and Manchester City both went through on penalties, but a match-result bet settles on the 90-minute score, so both count as draws and both of our calls on them lost. Fulham and Arsenal lost outright.
Three of the six had a positive edge on our numbers, and two of those three won. The other three were negative-edge calls: we liked the side less than the price did.
All six calls
| Match | Our call | Price | Our chance | Edge | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth v Aston Villa | Bournemouth | 2.3, Hard Rock Bet | 52.4% | +8.9 pts | 3–0 | Won |
| Sunderland v Brentford | Sunderland | 3.85, Betfair | 37.1% | +11.1 pts | 3–2 | Won |
| Liverpool v Chelsea | Liverpool | 2.65, PointsBet (AU) | 50.3% | +12.5 pts | 1–1, 6–5 pens | Lost |
| Fulham v Crystal Palace | Fulham | 1.95, PointsBet (AU) | 47.8% | -3.5 pts | 0–1 | Lost |
| Manchester City v Brighton | Manchester City | 1.7, Betfair | 43.3% | -15.5 pts | 2–2, 4–3 pens | Lost |
| Fleetwood Town v Arsenal | Arsenal | 1.11, Betfair | 72.8% | -17.3 pts | 1–1, 3–5 pens | Lost |
Prices, chances and edges are from the Desk record. Scores are from Football Web Pages and the Guardian.
What the numbers say
On the three positive-edge calls, a one-unit stake on each would have returned 1.3 units on Bournemouth and 2.85 on Sunderland and lost 1 on Liverpool: up 3.15 units. That is our arithmetic on the record's prices, and three bets is far too few to read anything into.
The negative-edge calls lost, which is what a negative edge says is more likely than the price suggests, not a promise. Fleetwood holding Arsenal was the upset of the round: we made Arsenal 72.8% to win in 90 minutes and they did not, then went out 5–3 in the shootout.
Where we were wrong, and right for the wrong reason
Liverpool was the call we liked most, at a 12.5 point edge, and it lost to the rule rather than the football. Before the game we wrote about what Chelsea's injury list does to the Liverpool price; Liverpool went through, but not inside 90 minutes. The settled previews are Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea and Sunderland 3–2 Brentford.
Sunderland were 3–0 up inside ten minutes, per the Guardian, then held on at 3–2. A win is a win on the record, but it was closer than the score first looked.
What this does not tell you
Six cup ties with rotated teams say almost nothing about whether our numbers are any good; for that, read what a calibration curve shows. The record across all settled calls stood at 193 won and 145 lost on 29 October. The quarter-finals are Fleetwood v Everton or Newcastle, Manchester City v Bradford, Crystal Palace v Sunderland and Liverpool v Bournemouth.
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Common questions
How did BAI8 do in the Carabao Cup fourth round?
Two of six calls won: Bournemouth against Aston Villa and Sunderland against Brentford. Liverpool, Fulham, Manchester City and Arsenal lost.
Why did the Liverpool and Manchester City calls lose when they went through?
Both games were level after 90 minutes. A match-result bet is settled on the 90-minute score, so a penalty shootout win counts as a draw.
How did the positive-edge calls do?
Three of the six had a positive edge on our numbers. Two won, Bournemouth at 2.3 and Sunderland at 3.85, and Liverpool at 2.65 lost.