Mallorca vs Córdoba prediction and team news

How it settled

Mallorca 3–3 Cordoba, full time on Saturday 14 November. Mallorca, at 49.6%, did not win: a six-goal draw is the kind of open game the 25.7% draw figure always left room for.

Our call before the match

Written on 13 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

BAI8 backs Mallorca to beat Córdoba, and gives them a 49.6% chance. That makes them the likeliest result, not a strong favourite: a draw is 25.7% and a Córdoba win is 24.7%. The match is on Saturday 14 November 2026 at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, kick-off 18:30 local time (17:30 UTC), per Mallorca's club site. At the best price we found, 1.71 at Unibet, our verdict is a pass.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Mallorca vs Córdoba page to see the full call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. BAI8 never places bets and holds no bookmaker account.

Our prediction

These are BAI8's figures from the assessment run on 8 November 2026 (engine v4-ensemble, 13 research passes, 32 sources). Prices are the best we found at the time shown and may have moved since.

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best bookmaker price
Mallorca	49.6%	2.01	1.71 at Unibet (8 Nov, 17:28 UTC)
Draw	25.7%	3.90	4.38 at 1xBet (8 Nov, 17:28 UTC)
Córdoba	24.7%	4.05	4.80 at 1xBet (8 Nov, 17:28 UTC)

The verdict is in its own words: "Pass: neither majority likelihood nor positive value." Three reasons sit behind it.

• Mallorca's 49.6% does not clear the strict 50% line for a majority likelihood.
• A 1.71 price needs the home side to win 58.5% of the time to break even. We have them 8.8 points short of that.
• Our conservative range for Mallorca runs from 28.1% to 71.3%. It crosses the break-even line, so any apparent edge is not robust.

In plain words: the bookmaker thinks Mallorca are likelier than we do. With one bookmaker feed in the comparison, the market consensus was 57.5% Mallorca, 22.2% draw and 20.3% Córdoba. We rate Mallorca about eight points lower. If you were thinking of backing Mallorca at 1.71, our research says the price is too short for the chance. For how to read a gap like that, see expected value in plain numbers.

Confidence in the assessment is moderate (0.623), with the sources agreeing at 0.935. The pass applies to the Mallorca selection only. The draw and Córdoba prices are listed above because the table is the whole picture, and the pass is not a recommendation on either.

Why we back Mallorca

Mallorca are the better-placed side, but not by as much as the market says. Four things shape our number.

Table and stakes. Mallorca have 22 points after 12 league matches. Córdoba have 19 after 13. That is a gap of three points, and Córdoba have played one more game. Córdoba coach Iván Ania has said that a win would give the team a leap up the table, per Córdoba's club site.

Mallorca's form. They beat Las Palmas 3–1 at home on matchday 9, drew 1–1 at Leganés, and then came from behind to beat Cádiz 2–1 at Son Moix. Antoñito put Cádiz ahead just after the restart, Pablo Torre equalised with a header and Adrián Fuentes won it with a header in the 89th minute, per the club report. In the Leganés draw Luvumbo scored first, Álex Millán levelled in the second half, and Mallorca then sat on 19 points, per the club report. Mallorca have also used different line-ups and shapes in recent games, so we treat their formation as contextual, not fixed.

Córdoba's form. Over their last six league matches Córdoba have two wins, three draws and one defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5, per our research file. Their latest result was a 3–0 home win over Ceuta, with an own goal, then two goals from Diego Percan, according to the club report. It was their third clean sheet of the season and left them with ten points from their last twelve. Before that they drew 2–2 at Celta Fortuna after being reduced to nine men, with Álex Martín sent off at 45' and Isma Ruiz at 86', per the club report. Before that they beat Eibar 2–0 at home, per this report. This is a side that does not lose often right now, which is why we give it nearly one chance in four.

Rest and schedule. Mallorca last played on 2 November, leaving a 12-calendar-day gap to this fixture. Córdoba played on 7 November, seven days before. Actual physical rest is not measured. Mallorca have a cup tie against Alcoyano on 18 November, four days later, which could shape selection, though that is possibility and not proof of league rotation.

Team news

Here is what was reported, and when. Nothing here is a confirmed line-up.

• Última Hora reported on 5 November that centre-back Martin Valjent would be away with Slovakia, and that John Donald was doubtful with minor muscle problems. Josep Cerdà (a mild adductor injury), David López and Danu Luna were not training on the pitch. Antoniu Roca and Manu Morlanes were in long-term recovery, per Última Hora.
• Córdoba's coach referred to seven absences before the Ceuta game without naming them in the club's report. Rubén Alves was available and training normally.

We did not find a verified forecast for the venue at kick-off, so weather plays no part in our number.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	12.2%
1–0	10%
2–1	9.6%
2–0	8.7%
0–0	7%

The most likely single scoreline is a draw, even though Mallorca are the most likely winner. That is normal: no single score is likely, and the draw scorelines (1–1, 0–0) add up to a real slice of the total. On goals, BAI8 has over 1.5 at 76.4%, over 2.5 at 51.6% and over 3.5 at 29.5%. Over 2.5 is close to a coin flip, so we do not read it as a lean. For more on why a draw carries more weight than most people expect, see what the draw is worth in football odds.

What could make this wrong

• A wide range. Mallorca's chance runs from 28.1% to 71.3%, and Córdoba's from 11.1% to 47%. The point estimate is not the whole story. With so little between the sides, one early goal moves everything.
• Team news that has changed. Our research used reports up to 8 November. Fit players, new injuries and the final squad can all differ by Saturday.
• A stale price. Prices were quoted on 8 November. Odds move through the week, and the gap between our number and the market could close or widen.
• A thin market read. Only one bookmaker went into the consensus figure, so it is a weaker guide than a broad average.
• No head-to-head to lean on. We found no recent comparable meeting between these squads, so we did not use history to adjust the number.
• Córdoba's pressure when ahead. Our research notes Ania's criticism after Córdoba's lead against Ceuta, a caution that their pressure can drop when in front. It cuts both ways and is one reason we keep the range wide.

BAI8's call for this match is on its page: open the Mallorca vs Córdoba page. To understand how we arrive at numbers like these, read BAI8's guide to betting on football.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

This is a pre-match estimate from 8 November, not a forecast of the result. It does not know the starting line-ups, who is carrying a knock, or how the first twenty minutes go. Our chances are probabilities: Mallorca can win and still have been the less likely side, and Córdoba can win and our assessment was not wrong. The prices are a snapshot and the market consensus rests on one bookmaker. A pass means we do not see enough value at 1.71, not that Mallorca will fail to win.